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The NZD opens at 0.6497

Pretty quiet last 24 hours, with the Kiwi trading in tight ranges. We do however open under 0.6500, which psychologically is not going to be nice for importers to wake up to. NZ retail sales very slightly beat expectations yesterday, but not enough to drag the Kiwi out of the malaise.

We had the Feds meeting minutes just out, with the Fed stating “we don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction”. With the Fed pretty firmly on hold, and the RBA having 2 cuts priced in still, it is little wonder why we are down at the lows.

Because inflation has been so low for so long, central banks are leaning towards letting it overshoot their 2% target before they hike. They are of the view that they can only generally cut down to 0%, but they can raise interest rates as high as they like so containing inflation will be no problem. I think we all need to be a little wary here, as raising interest rates slow the economy, and practically a 10% interest rate is not going to be much fun. This is more a potential issue for the future, but just a reminder that this time is probably not different, where we currently sit is not going to last forever, and we are probably not on a permanently high plateau.

Global equity markets are generally higher overnight, - Dow -0.39%, S&P 500 -0.18%, FTSE +0.07%, DAX +0.21%, CAC -0.12%, Nikkei +0.05%, Shanghai -0.49%.

Gold prices are little changed at $1,273 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are off though, down 2.6% trading at $61.35 a barrel.


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