Reserve Bank MPS: Summary of Economic Projections

Table 1
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

--------------------------------------------------------------------Actuals------Projections
------------------------------March year------1998------1999------2000------2001------2002

Price measures
------CPIX-------------------------------------------------1.7------1.0------2.2------1.4------1.5
------Wages------------------------------------------------2.6------2.7------2.6------3.1------3.1
------Import prices (in New Zealand dollars) -------2.9------2.9------1.7------(-0.8)---(-0.2)
------Export prices (in New Zealand dollars) ------4.8------(-1.5)----2.6------(-0.9)----(-0.4)

Monetary conditions
------Nominal MCI (year average)-------------------700------(-50)----(-125)----0------100
------90-day rate (year average)-----------------------8.0------6.2------5.0------5.5------6.0
------TWI (year average)------------------------64.4------57.3------58.0------58.6------59.4

Output
------GDP (production, annual average % change)------2.0------(-0.2)----3.0------3.8------3.5
------Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average)------0.6----(-2.0)---(-1.4)---(-0.2)----0.3

Key balances
------Government operating balance --------------------2.6------2.3------0.3------0.8------1.1
------(% of GDP, June year average)
------Current account balance(1)-----------------------(-6.8)----(-6.5)----(-7.0)----(-5.5)----(-5.3)
------(% of GDP, year average)
------Terms of trade (annual average % change)------(-0.6)---(-0.6)-----(-1.7)-----0.8----(-0.2)
------Unemployment rate (March qtr. s.a.)----------------7.2------7.2------6.8------6.3------5.8
------Household savings rate (% of disposable income)---0.0----0.3------0.0------0.7------1.1

World economy
------World GDP (annual average % change)-------------3.1------0.9------2.8------2.8------2.8
------World CPI inflation------------------------------------2.4------1.0------1.7------1.8------2.0

Quarterly projections------------Mar-99------Jun-99------Sep-99------Dec-99------Mar-00
(quarterly percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

------CPIX----------------------------------------0.2------0.5------0.7------0.6------0.3
------CPIX (annual percentage change)------1.0------1.2------1.3------2.0------2.2
------GDP (production, s.a.)--------------------0.7------0.5------1.0------1.0------0.8

e = estimate.
s.a. = seasonally adjusted
Notes for this table are in Appendix 4
(1) ex migrants' transfers

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