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Deutsche Bank - ANZ Job Ads: August

Economic Note (New Zealand) NZ
Deutsche Bank
ANZ Job Ads: August

Key Points

The trend number of job ads rose sharply by 2.1% mom in August and were 30.0% higher than August 1998 - this was the twelfth consecutive monthly increase in the series.

On a regional basis, the strongest growth was experienced in the Auckland region, where the trend number of job ads increased 2.6% mom.

However, a significant component of the strength of job ads in August is likely to reflect the positive impact on labour demand from the September scheduled APEC meeting.

ANZ Job Ads------Trend---- Trend---- Trend

---------------- Number---- Mom.------Ann.

----------------------------%------ %

Month of:------------------

Mar-99----------21,451---- 1.5------ 7.1

Apr-99----------21,774---- 1.5------11.5

May-99----------22,211---- 2.0------16.7

Jun-99----------22,702---- 2.2------22.2

Jul-99----------23,205---- 2.2------26.9

Aug-99----------23,692---- 2.1------30.0


While the recent strength of job ads growth is likely to be overstated by the positive impact of the upcoming September APEC conference, the underlying level of job ads remains consistent with a further rise in employment over 1999. We expect the unemployment rate to edge down from the present 7.0% level to around 6.8% by the end of this year. Moreover, these data provide support to our expectation that the NZ economy is likely to continue to build momentum over the second half of 1999, with domestic demand forecast to maintain a strong growth contribution. At this point, there are a limited number of data providing a gauge on the strength of September quarter activity. Nevertheless, recent data have indicated that retail sales are consolidating and housing activity remains robust. While the trade balance has continued to deteriorate, the sharp rise in export expectations suggests some improvement in the months ahead.

----------September ANZ Job Ads Release: Friday 8 September.

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