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Deutsche Bank - ANZ Commodity Price Index: August

Deutsche Bank - ANZ Commodity Price Index: August

Economic Note (New Zealand) NZ
ANZ Commodity Price Index: August

Key Points

The average NZD price of New Zealand's commodity exports fell 0.2% in August 1999, following a 1.5% increase in July. Declines in sawn timber and horticultural prices more than offset further rises in meat and hide prices. The majority of other products were largely static. On an annual basis, NZ commodity prices were 2.3% lower than a year ago.

The corresponding average world price of New Zealand's commodity exports - which excludes the effects of local dollar movements - fell 1.3% in August following a revised increase of 0.6% in July. On an annual basis, world prices fell a provisional 0.7%.

ANZ:::::::::::::::: NZD::::::::::::::::World::::

Commodity::::::::::::Index::::::::::::Price Inde

xPrice:::::::::::: mom.::::ann.::::::::mom. ann.

Index:::::::::::: %::::::::%:::::::: %::::::::%

Mar-99::::::::::::0.7:::: 1.7:::: -0.9::::-5.6

Apr-99:::::::: -0.7:::: -2.9::::::::1.4::::-4.9

May-99::::::::::::0.7:::: -1.9::::::::2.4:::: 0.0

Jun-99::::::::::::2.6:::: -3.5:::: -0.7::::-0.8

Jul-99::::::::::::1.5:::: -0.5::::::::0.6::::-0.2

Aug-99:::::::: -0.2:::: -2.3:::: -1.3::::-0.7


This month's ANZ commodity price release is disappointing following outturns over recent months suggesting that the world price of NZ's main commodity exports were on a tentative recovery path. However, despite the weakness evident in the aggregate index, divergent trends are evident within the index. In particular, over recent months we have seen encouraging increases in meat, aluminium and wood pulp prices, although these have been offset by soft dairy and horticultural prices.

While the prices of commodities exported by New Zealand have tended to lag the upward movement in "hard" commodities, recent pricing developments in the CRB index reinforce our expectation that a turning point has been reached. The marked improvement in the international growth outlook is also likely to translate into firmer commodity prices during the second half of this year.

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