Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


Deutsche Bank - Preview GDP - June Quarter 1999

Economic Note (New Zealand)
NZ: Preview GDP - June Quarter 1999

Key Points

Release date:::::::::::::::: Friday 24 September, 10.45am (NZT)

Deutsche Bank forecasts:::::: Production GDP: 0.5% qoq; 2.7% yoy

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Expenditure GDP: 0.7% qoq; 3.7% yoy

Forecast risk:::::::::::::::: Balanced risk assessment

RBNZ forecast:::::::::::::::: Production GDP: 0.5% qoq; 2.7% yoy

Market expectations (Median): Production GDP: 0.5% qoq. Range: +0.2%/+0.9% qoq

Previous release (Mar qtr)::::::Production GDP: 0.7% qoq; 1.5% yoy

DB GDP June Qtr Forecasts:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: % Point
::::::::::::::::::::::::: Quarter %:::::Annual %::::: Cont. To
::::::::::::::::::::::::: Change::::: Change::::: GDP Quarterly

Group (seriesweights)::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Outcome

Priv. Consumption (63.4%):::::0.8:::::::::: 2.1:::::::::: 0.5

Gov't Consumption (17.0%):::::0.2:::::::::: 0.8:::::::::: 0.0

Investment (16.0%):::::::::: -1.9:::::::::: 7.0:::::::::: -0.4

Increase in Stocks (0.1%):::::0.4:::::::::: 0.5:::::::::: 0.4

GNE (96.4%)::::::::::::::: 0.5:::::::::: 3.2:::::::::: 0.5

Exports (30.0%):::::::::: -2.4:::::::::: 6.9:::::::::: -0.8

Imports (26.5%):::::::::: -2.6:::::::::: 5.1:::::::::: 1.0

Expenditure GDP:::::::::::::::0.7:::::::::: 3.7:::::::::: 0.7


Reflecting the recent release of weaker-than-expected manufacturing sector data, we have edged back our June quarter production GDP estimate from an increase of around 0.6-0.7% qoq to 0.5% qoq. Nevertheless, within the total we expect a positive contribution from the services sector (largely reflecting projected growth in the transport & communication, finance and wholesale industries) to more than offset on-going weakness in the agricultural and primary processing sectors. On an expenditure basis, we expect a positive contribution from consumption expenditure and stockbuilding to be somewhat dampened by a negative investment contribution and a reasonably flat net external sector profile. With our quarterly GDP estimate now in line with the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) projection, such an outturn will reinforce our expectation that the Reserve Bank will keep the OCR unchanged at the 29 September review. Instead, we expect the RBNZ to raise the cash rate by 50 bp to 5.0% at the November MPS.

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site or email our helpline


© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


BusinessDesk: Body massages and Uber are in, DVDs are out, says Stats NZ

Statistics New Zealand has rejigged the consumers price index basket in its latest three-year review, adding body massages, Airbnb and Uber and removing DVD and Blu-Ray players…More>>


StuffMe: Commerce Commission Welcomes Dismissal Of Merger Appeal

In a summary of their judgment released today, Justice Dobson and lay member Professor Martin Richardson dismissed the appellants’ process criticisms and found the Commission was entitled to place significant weight on the prospect of reduced quality of the products produced by the merged entity. More>>


Digital Futures: New Chief Technology Officer Role Created

Communications Minister Clare Curran has called for expressions of interest for the new role of Chief Technology Officer position to help drive a forward-looking digital agenda for New Zealand. More>>

Dry: Beef + Lamb Launches Drought Resources

The resources include a fact sheet outlining strategies to manage and mitigate the effects of drought, coping with stress on the farm and advice on feed requirements and animal welfare during the dry period. More>>


InternetNZ: Net Neutrality Failure In US "Will Hurt All Users"

InternetNZ Chief Executive Jordan Carter has condemned the decision by the United States communications regulator to undo 2015 open Internet rules, warning that all Internet users will end up worse off as a result. More>>