Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Deutsche Bank – Current Account Preview

Deutsche Bank Economic Note (New Zealand) NZ:

Current Account Preview - June Quarter 1999

Key Points

Release date:::::::::::::::::::::23 September, 10.45am (NZT)

DB forecast:::::::::::::::::::::Current account (ex migrant transfers) :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ($NZ): -$2.1bn qtr.; -$6.7bn ann.

Forecast risk::::::::::::::::: Balanced risk assessment

Market expectations (median): Quarterly current account balance ($NZ): ::::::::::::::::::::::::-$2.0bn qtr.; Range: -$1.5bn$2.2bn
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Annual current account balance ($NZ): :::::::::::::::::::::::::-$6.6bn ann.; Range: -$6.1bn/-$6.7bn
Previous release (Mar qtr): Quarterly current account balance ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::($NZ): -$0.9bn qtr. :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Annual current account balance ($NZ): :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::-$6.5bn ann.

:::: Current Account (yr ended):::: Jun98::::Sep98::::Dec98::::Mar99 Jun99

Merchandise Exports ::::::::21,706 22,167::::22,566 22,616 22,770

Merchandise Imports ::::::::20,165 20,533::::21,009 21,363 21,881

Trade Balance ::::::::::::::::1,541::::1,634:::: 1,557 1,253:::: 889

Services Exports ::::::::6,666::::6,835:::: 7,035 7,540::::7,682

Services Imports ::::::::8,083::::8,410:::: 8,566 8,791::::8,867

Services Balance :::: -1,418 -1,575:::: -1,543 -1,252 -1,186

Total Investment Credits 404:::: 19::::::::-27::::-193:::: -50

Total Investment Debits:::::::: 7,495::::7,159:::: 6,728 6,742 7,000

Investment Income Balance:::: -7,091 -7,140:::: -6,755 -6,935 -7,050

Transfer Balance:::::::::::::::: 704:::: 642::::::::768:::: 557:::: 654

Current Account Balance::::::::-6,264 -6,439:::: -5,973 -6,377 -6,693

Balance (ex migrant transfers) -6,424 -6,574:::: -6,120 -6,482 -6,749 % of nominal GDP:::::::::::: -6.5:::: -6.5:::: -6.1::::-6.5:::: -6.7

Comment

We expect the newly formatted balance of payments data - under the new IMF methodology these data exclude the effect of migrant transfers - to show the annual deficit as a percentage of GDP widening from 6.5% to 6.7% of GDP over the June quarter. While we project some improvement in the annual services balances, this is expected to be more than offset by a deterioration in the annual investment balance and merchandise trade position.

Looking ahead, despite the outlook for exports and the terms of trade remaining positive, the on-going strength of import growth is likely to constrain the medium-term improvement in the trade balance. In addition, most of this improvement is expected to be offset by a worsening investment income deficit, reflecting a recovery in company earnings, rising world interest rates, as well as the funding costs related to continued high deficits.

With the deficit expected to widen to around 7.5% of GDP - largely due to the importation of a naval frigate - we expect the subsequent reduction in the deficit to stall above 6% of GDP. As such, we expect the external imbalance will remain NZ's key structural problem.

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Onetai Station: Overseas Investment Office Puts Ceol & Muir On Notice

The Overseas Investment Office (OIO) has issued a formal warning to Ceol & Muir and its owners, Argentinian brothers Rafael and Federico Grozovsky, for failing to provide complete and accurate information when they applied to buy Onetai Station in 2013. More>>

ALSO:

Tomorrow, The UN: Feds President Takes Reins At World Farming Body

Federated Farmers president Dr William Rolleston has been appointed acting president of the World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO) at a meeting in Geneva overnight. More>>

ALSO:

I Sing The Highway Electric: Charge Net NZ To Connect New Zealand

BMW is turning Middle Earth electric after today announcing a substantial contribution to the charging network Charge Net NZ. This landmark partnership will enable Kiwis to drive their electric vehicles (EVs) right across New Zealand through the installation of a fast charging highway stretching from Kaitaia to Invercargill. More>>

ALSO:

Watch This Space: Mahia Rocket Lab Launch Site Officially Opened

Economic Development Minster Steven Joyce today opened New Zealand’s first orbital launch site, Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1, on the Mahia Peninsula on the North Island’s east coast. More>>

Earlier:

Marketing Rocks!
Ig Nobel Award Winners Assess The Personality Of Rocks

A Massey University marketing lecturer has received the 2016 Ig Nobel Prize for economics for a research project that asked university students to describe the “brand personalities” of three rocks. More>>

ALSO:

Nurofen Promotion: Reckitt Benckiser To Plead Guilty To Misleading Ads

Reckitt Benckiser (New Zealand) intends to plead guilty to charges of misleading consumers over the way it promoted a range of Nurofen products, the Commerce Commission says. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news