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Cairns Lockie Mortgage Commentary

Welcome to the eighteenth issue of the Cairns Lockie Mortgage Commentary. This is a fortnightly electronic newsletter which aims to keep you informed on developments at Cairns Lockie, Mortgage Bankers and the mortgage market in general.

Previous issues of this commentary can be found on our website http://www.emortgage.co.nz


The Money Market

This morning (8am on 1 October) the money markets are at the following levels:

Official cash rate 4.50%
90 day bill 5.00
1 year swap rate 5.70
3 year swap rate 6.98
10 year bond 6.82
Kiwi dollar 0.5180


Election Soon (27 Nov) - Here’s How You Will Pay For The Promises!

The Alliance and Labour intend to increase the marginal rate above $60,000 pa to 39% with the Alliance talking of an executive surcharge above $75,000 (4% more and a further 4% above $100,000 taking the rate to 47%). National - no change. ACT - flat tax. New Zealand First tax policy not yet available.

Countrywide Customers Unhappy with Merger

We have heard from a number of Countrywide customers experiencing difficulties with account number integration with the National Bank. We are assisting a number of our clients through these problems. Please let us know if we can help.


Will Rates Really Rise?

Our Treasurer Mr Bill English, as well as some other economic commentators, has been saying that interest rates and hence mortgage rates will rise. There are several reasons why interest rates may not rise:
The latest Treasury figures, show negative economic growth of 0.3% during the second quarter. If this occurs during the third quarter we are technically in a recession.

Interest rates are fairly responsive to inflation which is currently low. The only two items with a strong upward movement in price have been petrol and city council rates.

Housing features heavily when discussing inflation and interest rates. While housing sales have increased on last year, and there are more new starts, house price increases have been minimal in 1999.
In conclusion, when discussing likely interest rises, we should bear in mind, there is little growth occurring in the economy, virtually zero inflation and only small increases in house prices - which all help to negate the likelihood of any interest rate increases.


The Seventh Edition

The Auckland District Law Society released the seventh edition of the Agreement for Sale and Purchase of Real Estate on 13 September. It is the result of an 18 month review and contains substantial changes.


Auckland Collier Hockey Update

Recall we are proudly supporting this event. Mid week the Auckland team in Timaru was ahead on points having won five games and lost one at that point. Final results should be available now on http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~penn

Our current interest rates are as follows

Variable rate 5.85%

Two-year fixed rate 7.80
Three-year fixed rate 8.30
Five-year fixed rate 8.75

Line of credit facility 6.25
Equity accelerator 6.25

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