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Deutsche Bank Research: NZ ANZ Jobs Ads - October

Data Flash (New Zealand)

NZ: ANZ Jobs Ads - October 1999

Key Points

The trend number of job ads rose sharply by 2.3% mom in October and were 35.3% higher than October 1998 - this was the fourteenth consecutive monthly increase in the series.

On a regional basis, the strongest growth was experienced in the Auckland region, where the trend number of job ads increased 2.3% mom.

:::::::::::: Trend:::::: Trend:::::: Trend

:::::::::::: Number:::::: Mom. %:::::: Ann. %

Month of::::::::::::::::::::::::

May-99:::::: 22,190:::::: 2.1:::::: 16.6

Jun-99:::::: 22,812:::::: 2.8:::::: 22.7

Jul-99:::::: 23,560:::::: 3.3:::::: 28.8

Aug-99:::::: 24,285:::::: 3.1:::::: 33.3

Sep-99:::::: 24,950:::::: 2.7:::::: 35.5

Oct-99:::::: 25,520:::::: 2.3:::::: 35.3

Comment

The latest job ads outturn indicates that the improvement in labour market conditions evident in the September quarter HLFS data is likely to continue into the fourth quarter. This outlook is further reinforced by the QSBO numbers employed series which also suggests both a rise in employment and a decline in the unemployment rate - we expect the unemployment rate to edge down from the present 6.8% level to around 6.3% by the end of next year. As employers become more confident regarding the durability of the present recovery, we would expect the re-emergence of skill shortages to led to an upward pressure on wages. Such a scenario further reinforces our expectation that the RBNZ will look to raise the OCR by 50 bps at the 17 November MPS.

ENDS

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