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Deutsche Bank: NZ ANZ Job Ads - November 1999

Data Flash (New Zealand) NZ

ANZ Job Ads - November 1999

Key Points

The trend number of job ads rose by 1.2% mom in November and were 31.5% higher than November 1998 - this was the fifteenth consecutive monthly increase in the series.

On a regional basis, the strongest growth was experienced in the Christchurch region, where the trend number of job ads increased 2.3% mom.

::::::::::Trend::::Trend:::::::Trend
::::::::::Number Mom. %:::Ann. %
Month:::::::::::::::::::::::::
of:

Jun-99::::22,820::::2.8:::::22.8
Jul-99::::23,535::::3.1:::::28.7
Aug-99::::24,245::::3.0:::::33.1
Sep-99::::24,829::::2.4:::::34.9
Oct-99::::25,305::::1.9:::::34.2
Nov-99::::25,619::::1.2:::::31.5

Source: DB Global Markets Research, ANZ Bank

Comment

Despite the recent slowing in the trend rate of growth in job ads, the level of the series remains at the highest level since the series began in January 1990. The recent strength of job ads data reinforces that the tightening in labour market activity evident in the September quarter HLFS data is likely to continue over the year ahead. In particular, we project the unemployment rate to decline from the present 6.8% level to around 6.3% by the end of next year. The expected improvement in labour market conditions against a backdrop of an on-going recovery in economic activity suggests upside risks to the Bank's wage inflation forecast. In particular, we remain sceptical of the RBNZ's projected moderation in wage inflation given the recently observed upward drift in wage settlements and the QSBO indicating increasing difficulty in finding skilled labour.

ENDS

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