Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

Deutsche Bank: NZ Food Price Index - Nov 1999

Data Flash (New Zealand)
NZ Food Price Index
Food Price Index:::::

Food Price Index Fruit & Vegetable

::::::::::mom. % ann. % mom. %::::: ann. %

Jun- 99 -0.7::::: 1.4::::: -6.3::::::::::0.4
Jul- 99 0.5::::: 1.1::::: -1.8::::: -7.3
Aug- 99:::::::::: -0.6::::: -0.6::::: -3.0::::: -11.0
Sep- 99:::::::::: 0.3::::: -0.3::::: -1.4::::: -11.2
Oct- 99:::::::::: -0.6::::: -1.2::::: -6.6::::: -15.9
Nov-99:::::::::: +0.5::::: -0.3::::::::::-::::: -13.8

Source: DB Global Markets Research, Statistics NZ

Key Points

The food price index (FPI) comprises 18% of the CPI regimen and is very volatile on a monthly basis. The food price index rose 0.5% mom in November, following a 0.6% mom decline in October. Food prices are now 0.3% lower than they were in November 1998.

The most significant contribution to the increase in the November index came from the grocery foods, soft drink & confectionery (+0.7%) and meat fish & poultry subgroups (+1.5%). Somewhat offsetting these increases, the fruit & vegetable subgroup (-0.1%) made the only downward contribution to aggregate food prices - the decline in this group largely reflects favourable climatic conditions. Food prices excluding the volatile fresh fruit and vegetable components rose +0.6% for the month (+1.3% yoy).

Comment

The 0.5% mom increase in food prices in November was in line with average market expectations. Despite the reasonably subdued state of food price inflation, a number of largely transitory factors (local authority rates, car and petrol prices) suggests a sharp pick- up in CPI inflation over the December quarter - we expect Q4 CPI of +0.9% qoq/+2.0% yoy.

In spite of a projected upturn in CPI inflation over the first half of 2000, we do not assume a cash rate rise to occur at the interim assessment date of 19 January, but instead expect a +50 bp move at the 15 March MPS. Nevertheless, the Bank may consider a January move if the NZD has a disappointing start to the new year, suggesting that interest rates will need to play a more significant part in the tightening process.

ENDS

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Media Mega Merger: StuffMe Hearing Argues Over Moveable Feast

New Zealand's two largest news publishers are appealing against the Commerce Commission's rejection of the proposal to merge their operations. More>>

Elsewhere:


Approval: Northern Corridor Decision Released

The approval gives the green light to construction of the last link of Auckland’s Western Ring Route, providing an alternative route from South Auckland to the North Shore. More>>

ALSO:


Crown Accounts: $4.1 Billion Surplus

The New Zealand Government has achieved its third fiscal surplus in a row with the Crown accounts for the year ended 30 June 2017 showing an OBEGAL surplus of $4.1 billion, $2.2 billion stronger than last year, Finance Minister Steven Joyce says. More>>

ALSO:

Mycoplasma Bovis: One New Property Tests Positive

The newly identified property... was already under a Restricted Place notice under the Biosecurity Act. More>>

Accounting Scandal: Suspension Of Fuji Xerox From All-Of-Government Contract

General Manager of New Zealand Government Procurement John Ivil says, “FXNZ has been formally suspended from the Print Technology and Associated Services (PTAS) contract and terminated from the Office Supplies contract.” More>>