Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

Deutsche Bank Research: NZ GDP Preview

Data Flash (New Zealand) - Preview
NZ GDP Preview - Sep Q 1999
Release date: Thursday 23 December, 10.45am (NZT)

Deutsche
Bank forecasts:::::::Production GDP: +2.3% qoq; +3.7% yoy
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Expenditure GDP: +2.1% qoq; +4.0% yoy

Forecast risk:::::::::::::::::Modest upside risk
RBNZ forecast:::::::::::::::::Production GDP: +1.3% qoq; +2.8% yoy

Market expectations (Average):Production GDP: +1.7% qoq.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Range: +1.2%/+2.3% qoq

Previous release (Jun qtr): Production GDP: -0.3% qoq; +2.0% yoy

DB GDP September Quarter Forecasts

Group (series weights) q% change a% change::::% Point Cont. to
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: GDP Quarterly
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Outcome

Priv. Consumption (63.4%) 1.6:::::: 3.1:::::::::::: 1.0

Gov't Consumption (17.0%) 2.0:::::: 3.5:::::::::::: 0.3

Investment (16.0%)::::::::::3.5:::::: 16.5:::::::::::: 0.8

Increase in Stocks (0.1%) -2.1:::::: 0.9:::::::::::: -2.1

GNE (96.4%):::::::::::::::::0.1:::::: 6.5:::::::::::: 0.1

Exports (30.0%):::::::::::: 6.8:::::: 4.9:::::::::::: 2.2

Imports (26.5%):::::::::::: 0.4:::::: 12.3:::::::::::: -0.2

Expenditure GDP:::::::::::: 2.1:::::: 4.0:::::::::::: 2.1

Source: DB Global Markets Research, Statistics NZ

Comment

On the basis of a sharp rise in manufacturing sector sales, we have raised our estimate for September quarter production GDP from an increase of +2.1% qoq to +2.3% qoq. Within the total, we expect a strong rebound in agricultural production and primary food processing, together with a pick-up in activity in the wholesale and retailing sectors. On an expenditure basis, we expect activity over the quarter to be dominated by a sharp rise in exports and continuing consumption and investment expenditure. While significant de-stocking is anticipated over the quarter, this will merely reflect the unwinding of substantial stockbuilding over Q2.

Our GDP estimate is at the top end of analyst's projections, which average around the +1.7% qoq level. However, with some of the volatility in the GDP data attributable to unstable seasonality, there is some possibility of the Q3 outturn below 2%, accompanied by an upward revision to Q2. Nonetheless a Q3 GDP outturn around our expectations will be significantly above the RBNZ forecasts for a +1.3% qoq increase. This will suggest a faster closing of the output gap and is likely to further increase speculation that the Bank will look to raise the OCR at the 19 January review. However, at this point, despite the projected strength of Q3 activity and recent NZD weakness, we expect the RBNZ to increase the OCR by +50 bps at the 15 March MPS.

ENDS

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

ScoopPro: Helping The Education Sector Get More Out Of Scoop

The ScoopPro professional license includes a suite of useful information tools for professional users of Scoop including some specifically for those in the education sector to make your Scoop experience better. More>>

Big Tax Bill Due: Destiny Church Charities Deregistered

The independent Charities Registration Board has decided to remove Destiny International Trust and Te Hahi o Nga Matamua Holdings Limited from the Charities Register on 20 December 2017 because of the charities’ persistent failure to meet their annual return obligations. More>>

57 Million Users' Data: Uber Breach "Utterly Preventatable"

Cybersecurity leader Centrify says the Uber data breach of 57 million customer and driver records - which the ride-hailing company hid for more than a year - was “utterly preventable”. More>>

Scoop 3.0: How You Can Help Scoop’s Evolution

We have big plans for 2018 as we look to expand our public interest journalism coverage, upgrade our publishing infrastructure and offer even more valuable business tools to commercial users of Scoop. More>>

Having A Cow? Dairy Product Prices Slide For Fourth Straight Auction

Dairy product prices fell at the Global Dairy Trade auction, retreating for the fourth straight auction amid signs of increased production... Whole milk powder fell 2.7 percent to US$2,778 a tonne. More>>

ALSO:

Statistics: Butter At Record $5.67/Block; High Vegetable Prices

Rising dairy prices have pushed food prices up 2.7 percent in the year to October 2017, Stats NZ said today. This followed a 3.0 percent increase in the year to September 2017. More>>

ALSO:

Science: New Research Finds Herbicides Cause Antibiotic Resistance

New University of Canterbury research confirms that the active ingredients of the commonly used herbicides, RoundUp, Kamba and 2,4-D (glyphosate, dicamba and 2,4-D, respectively), each alone cause antibiotic resistance at concentrations well below label application rates. More>>

ALSO: