Crusaders & Waratahs both expected to win semis
Crusaders and Waratahs both expected to win their semis by about 16 points
The Crusaders and the Waratahs are both expected to win their Super 12 rugby semi-finals by 16 points according to the Massey Super 12 rugby ratings.
Massey University sports expert Hugh Morton has made the prediction on a computer system which takes into account home form.
Professor Morton said the Crusaders should beat the Hurricanes by 16 or 17 points and the Waratahs should edge out the Bulls by at least 10 points, or possibly as high as 16.
The Massey ratings are analysed by Prof Morton using a computerised adjustive rating system, similar to the PriceWaterhouseCooper rankings for cricket.
At the end of the round-robin stage of the Super 12, based on the winning margins of all 66 games, the following are the Massey team ratings and the common home advantage: Blues: 16.2 Brumbies: 13.7 Bulls: 20.3 Cats: 5.3 Chiefs: 16.2 Crusaders: 28.7 Highlanders: 14.2 Hurricanes: 16.5 Reds: 6.3 Sharks: 0.0 Stormers: 4.5 Waratahs: 25.9 Home advantage + 4.3 Team ratings have a margin of error of plus/minus 5.8, and the home advantage of plus/minus 1.8.
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