Hobbit Poll Shows Kiwis Optimistic But Not Very Interested

27 November 2012

Hobbit Poll Shows Kiwis Optimistic But Not Very Interested

Only 1% of New Zealanders expect the Hobbit film to be a box office flop, according to a UMR Research poll released today.

UMR’s fortnightly Omnibus Survey shows 84% of New Zealanders expecting that it will be successful at the box office, including 64% who believe it will be a major success. 15% are unsure whether it will be a success or failure. Groups that are particularly optimistic include:

• 30-44 year olds (71% expect a major success).
• People with personal incomes from $30-$50k (71% major success).
• Wellingtonians (70% major success).

Demographic groups who are less optimistic include:

• Over 60 year olds (56% expect a major success).
• Christchurch residents (60% major success).
• People with incomes below $30k (62% major success).

The numbers suggest, however, that the film may face challenges in terms of translating this optimism into actual attendance.

• Only 18% of New Zealanders say that they have been closely following the build-up to the Hobbit movie.
• To put this in context, interest in the build-up to the Hobbit ranks only 108th out of the 112 news stories UMR has tracked interest in so far this year, and 871st out of 896 news stories tracked since 2003.

The UMR Research Nationwide Omnibus Survey was conducted 22-26 November. It has a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years and over. The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is +/- 3.6%.

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