Education Policy | Post Primary | Preschool | Primary | Tertiary | Search

 


Key Will Not Be Losing Any Sleep Over Political Poll, Expert


Key Will Not Be Losing Any Sleep Over Political Poll, UC Expert Says

February 21, 2013

A University of Canterbury (UC) political scientist believes Prime Minister John Key will not be losing any sleep over the latest Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll which shows Labour inching into contention ahead of next year’s general election.

On the poll’s figures, it would be a dead-heat between a National-led bloc and a Labour-led bloc in a 122-seat Parliament.

But UC political scientist Professor Alex Tan said 18 months out from the next election, it was too early to be predicting a winner when there were many plausible factors that could change suddenly.

In politics a political scandal, for example, could sway public support. As far as Labour leader David Shearer was concerned, he was too much of an unknown to many so doubts about his performance were understandable. As the public got to know more of him, his support level could change either way, Professor Tan said.

``If you use the poll numbers and consider the 3.4 percent margin error, National could win with the support of a few more seats from coalition partners or lose outright because of few options for coalition.

``The current poll number is misleading because despite the low support levels for the minor parties currently in coalition with National, these parties tend to be able to win constituency seats. There is still a lot of time between now and the next election to be more precise about our prediction.

``I don’t think John Key is losing sleep over this nor Shearer totally excited about the number as seasoned politicians know that it is simply too far out of the election.

``However, party leaders use these numbers to get some feel of public support. Shearer may use this as a point to consolidate his hold on the Labour leadership, while Key and National may use this just as a pulse meter for how well or how poorly they have been doing in the last year or so.’’

Professor Tan said he was unsure whether there had been a marked improvement in Shearer but he is more vocal and being interviewed more.

It would only become a concern for National if the poll became a permanent trend leading into the election. If support continued to decline then they have a problem, Professor Tan said.

``We don’t have the numbers for preferred Prime Minister but in general it seems like Key is doing fine. He exudes an image that he is on top of things such as a Cabinet reshuffle, introducing younger MPs and moving a senior cabinet minister to solve problems like the Novopay issue.


ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Culture Headlines | Health Headlines | Education Headlines

 
Scoop Review Of Books: Excerpt - Ice Bear: The Cultural History Of An Arctic Icon

“During the last decade the image of the polar bear has moved in the public imagination from being an icon of strength, independence and survival in one of the most climatically extreme of world environments, to that of fragility, vulnerability and more generally of a global environmental crisis.” More>>

NZ Opera: Max Rashbrooke Reviews The Mikado

So concerns about the work of the piece have to be addressed; but they are complex, and probably better handled in another post. So what about this production itself? More>>

Scoop Review Of Books: The Typewriter Factory

I finished reading Don’t Dream It’s Over not long after it came out last August. I even started writing a review, which took something of an ‘I’m sorry people, but it’s already over’ approach. I’ve been pretty negative about journalism as it’s practiced in the mainstream (or MSM, or corporate media or liberal media or whatever terminology you prefer) for quite some time (see for example Stop the Press), and I believe the current capitalist media model is destructive and can’t be reformed. More>>

Sheep Update: Solo World Shearing Record Broken In Southland

Southland shearer Leon Samuels today set a new World solo eight-hours strongwool ewe-shearing after a tally of 605 in a wool shed north of Gore. More>>

ALSO:

Howard Davis Review: Dick Frizzell At The Solander Gallery

One of the most influential and celebrated contemporary Pop artists working in New Zealand, Dick Frizzell is mostly known for his appropriation of kitsch Kiwiana icons, which he often incorporates into cartoon-like paintings and lithographs. Not content with adhering to one particular style, he likes to adopt consciously unfashionable styles of painting, in a manner reminiscent of Roy Lichtenstein. More>>

Old Music: Pop Icon Adam Ant Announces NZ Tour

Following his recent sold out North American and UK tours, Adam Ant is celebrating the 35th anniversary of the release of his landmark KINGS OF THE WILD FRONTIER album with a newly-remastered reissue (Sony Legacy) and Australasian tour. More>>

Get More From Scoop

 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
Education
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news