Education Policy | Post Primary | Preschool | Primary | Tertiary | Search

 


WASP co-creator on odds of McCullum’s triple test century

WASP co-creator looks at odds of McCullum’s triple test century

February 18, 2014

University of Canterbury economics lecturer Dr Seamus Hogan, the co-creator of the WASP limited-overs Predictor on Sky television, has looked at the odds of Black Caps test cricket skipper Brendon McCullum reaching 300 against India in Wellington today.

"It depends a lot on how you phrase the question of odds," Dr Hogan says.

"But some simple back-of-the-envelope calculations can illustrate how special this innings was.

"Assuming he was going to score at the same rate as his career average (in fact, his strike rate in this innings was lower than this), he would have needed 490 balls to reach 300, and given his career dismissal rate, would only have a 0.0232 percent of surviving that long without being dismissed.

"That is, one would expect to see it only once every 4310 innings. And this does not take into account any tiredness that sets in in a long innings.

"Furthermore, being dismissed is not the only reason one can fail to reach 300. The other possibility is being left not-out when all other batsmen are dismissed.

"Based on the test career dismissal rates of the batsmen who had not already been dismissed when McCullum came to bat, and assuming the strike was shared equally between the two batsmen at the crease, the average number of balls that would be faced by the other batsmen before they were all dismissed was only 294, well below the 490 McCullum would have needed to get 300 based on his career strike rate.

"This suggests that the probability of McCullum even having had the opportunity to face as many deliveries as he has was very low and shows how important BJ Watling and Jimmy Neesham’s innings were in giving McCullum the opportunity to push for 300.

"There are all sorts of statistical reasons why these probabilities are not exact, but the rough calculation illustrates just how special this innings has been, without even considering the context of the game in which it was been scored," Dr Hogan says.

McCullum’s marathon innings lasted 759 minutes and was off 559 balls.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Culture Headlines | Health Headlines | Education Headlines

 

Kiwi Pride: Accolades For Film About Man Who Falls In Love With A Stick

A short animated film written and directed by New Zealand born Matthew Darragh has been selected for the Courts des îles, International Festival of Short Fiction Films. More>>

ALSO:

Anniversaries: Vivid Memories Four Years After Christchurch Quake

Four years ago, an earthquake that would change the lives of thousands shook Christchurch at 12.51 p.m. More>>

ALSO:

Environment 'n' Conservation: Slash Meets Tāne The Tuatara

Rock and Roll superstar and former Guns 'n' Roses guitarist Slash visited Zealandia Ecosanctuary along with collaborating band Myles Kennedy and the Conspirators. More>>

Foo Fighters: Exclusive Show In Support Of Music Foundation

Frontier Touring has today announced that the Foo Fighters will play a last minute intimate and exclusive benefit show at the Auckland Town Hall this Friday February 20 with all profits going to The New Zealand Music Foundation. More>>

ALSO:

Canterbury Quakes: Feedback Sought On Short-Listed Memorial Designs

Six short-listed designs for the Canterbury Earthquake Memorial have been released for public input... The Memorial will honour the victims of Canterbury’s earthquakes and acknowledge the suffering of all those who lived through them as well as the heroism of those who participated in the rescue and recovery operations. More>>

ALSO:

Celia Lashlie: Legacy Will Live On

Social justice advocate Celia Lashlie leaves a legacy that will continue to have a positive impact on the lives of New Zealanders for years to come, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “Celia was a powerful voice for reason, sense and compassion. Her work, particularly with teenage boys, was ground-breaking." More>>

ALSO:

Obituary: Sad Farewell To PPTA Activist Robin Duff

Duff has been a long-time fixture of the association... Most recently Duff has been working hard to support Canterbury teachers through the quakes that devastated the region. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
Education
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news