Education Policy | Post Primary | Preschool | Primary | Tertiary | Search

 


WASP co-creator on odds of McCullum’s triple test century

WASP co-creator looks at odds of McCullum’s triple test century

February 18, 2014

University of Canterbury economics lecturer Dr Seamus Hogan, the co-creator of the WASP limited-overs Predictor on Sky television, has looked at the odds of Black Caps test cricket skipper Brendon McCullum reaching 300 against India in Wellington today.

"It depends a lot on how you phrase the question of odds," Dr Hogan says.

"But some simple back-of-the-envelope calculations can illustrate how special this innings was.

"Assuming he was going to score at the same rate as his career average (in fact, his strike rate in this innings was lower than this), he would have needed 490 balls to reach 300, and given his career dismissal rate, would only have a 0.0232 percent of surviving that long without being dismissed.

"That is, one would expect to see it only once every 4310 innings. And this does not take into account any tiredness that sets in in a long innings.

"Furthermore, being dismissed is not the only reason one can fail to reach 300. The other possibility is being left not-out when all other batsmen are dismissed.

"Based on the test career dismissal rates of the batsmen who had not already been dismissed when McCullum came to bat, and assuming the strike was shared equally between the two batsmen at the crease, the average number of balls that would be faced by the other batsmen before they were all dismissed was only 294, well below the 490 McCullum would have needed to get 300 based on his career strike rate.

"This suggests that the probability of McCullum even having had the opportunity to face as many deliveries as he has was very low and shows how important BJ Watling and Jimmy Neesham’s innings were in giving McCullum the opportunity to push for 300.

"There are all sorts of statistical reasons why these probabilities are not exact, but the rough calculation illustrates just how special this innings has been, without even considering the context of the game in which it was been scored," Dr Hogan says.

McCullum’s marathon innings lasted 759 minutes and was off 559 balls.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Culture Headlines | Health Headlines | Education Headlines

 

Cricket: Dramatic Win Puts Black Caps In Finals

In Parliament: When Parliament resumed at 2pm the House passed a motion on a voice vote admiring the performance of the New Zealand cricket team in last night’s World Cup semi-final and wishing them well for the final on the weekend. More>>

ALSO:

Moon Shot/Kills Switch: The X Factor Judges Removed

MediaWorks has today decided that Natalia Kills and Willie Moon are no longer suitable to judge The X Factor and have removed them from the show. MediaWorks CEO, Mark Weldon, said that last night on The X Factor both Kills and Moon made comments that were completely unacceptable. More>>

ALSO:

Tessa Nichol: Up Up & Away In The Wairarapa

It’s an overcast morning in the Wairarapa but the mood on the ground in Carterton’s Carrington Park is anything but grey. More than 20 hot air balloons are getting ready to take off into the cloudy sky to mark the start of this year’s Wairarapa Balloon Festival. More>>

Golden Shears: Scotsman Wins Golden Shears Open Final

A Scottish shearer who settled in New Zealand to farm in Taranaki has become the first shearer from overseas to win the Golden Shears Open Shearing Championship. More>>

ALSO:

Shipped On A Bottle: Young Change-Makers Take To The Sea On Plastic Bottle Kayaks

With the aim of harnessing innovative design to construct kayaks solely from recycled materials, the “waste positive” project Plastic Bottle Kayak brings adventure into Kiwi classrooms. The call is out now for classrooms to send in messages and artwork to be inserted into the bottles. More>>

TV3 Video: Auckland Arts Festival Kicks Off

The Auckland Arts Festival kicks off March 4, with artists from New Zealand and all over the world on show. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
Education
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news