Education Policy | Post Primary | Preschool | Primary | Tertiary | Search

 


WASP co-creator on odds of McCullum’s triple test century

WASP co-creator looks at odds of McCullum’s triple test century

February 18, 2014

University of Canterbury economics lecturer Dr Seamus Hogan, the co-creator of the WASP limited-overs Predictor on Sky television, has looked at the odds of Black Caps test cricket skipper Brendon McCullum reaching 300 against India in Wellington today.

"It depends a lot on how you phrase the question of odds," Dr Hogan says.

"But some simple back-of-the-envelope calculations can illustrate how special this innings was.

"Assuming he was going to score at the same rate as his career average (in fact, his strike rate in this innings was lower than this), he would have needed 490 balls to reach 300, and given his career dismissal rate, would only have a 0.0232 percent of surviving that long without being dismissed.

"That is, one would expect to see it only once every 4310 innings. And this does not take into account any tiredness that sets in in a long innings.

"Furthermore, being dismissed is not the only reason one can fail to reach 300. The other possibility is being left not-out when all other batsmen are dismissed.

"Based on the test career dismissal rates of the batsmen who had not already been dismissed when McCullum came to bat, and assuming the strike was shared equally between the two batsmen at the crease, the average number of balls that would be faced by the other batsmen before they were all dismissed was only 294, well below the 490 McCullum would have needed to get 300 based on his career strike rate.

"This suggests that the probability of McCullum even having had the opportunity to face as many deliveries as he has was very low and shows how important BJ Watling and Jimmy Neesham’s innings were in giving McCullum the opportunity to push for 300.

"There are all sorts of statistical reasons why these probabilities are not exact, but the rough calculation illustrates just how special this innings has been, without even considering the context of the game in which it was been scored," Dr Hogan says.

McCullum’s marathon innings lasted 759 minutes and was off 559 balls.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Culture Headlines | Health Headlines | Education Headlines

 
Werewolf: Katniss Joins The News Team

From the outset, the Hunger Games series has dwelt obsessively on the ways that media images infiltrate our public and personal lives... From that grim starting point, Mockingjay Part One takes the process a few stages further. There is very little of the film that does not involve the characters (a) being on screens (b) making propaganda footage to be screened and (c) reacting to what other characters have been doing on screens. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Review Of Books: Ko Witi Te Kaituhituhi

Witi Ihimaera, the distinguished Māori author and the first Māori to publish a book of short stories and a novel, has adopted a new genre with his latest book. But despite its subtitle, this book is a great deal more than a memoir of childhood. More>>

Werewolf: Rescuing Paul Robeson

Would it be any harder these days, for the US government to destroy the career of a famous American entertainer and disappear them from history – purely because of their political beliefs? You would hope so. In 1940, Paul Robeson – a gifted black athlete, singer, film star, Shakespearean actor and orator – was one of the most beloved entertainers on the planet. More>>

ALSO:

"Not A Competition... A Quest": Chapman Tripp Theatre Award Winners

Big winners on the night were Equivocation (Promising Newcomer, Best Costume, Best Director and Production of the Year), Kiss the Fish (Best Music Composition, Outstanding New NZ Play and Best Supporting Actress), and Watch (Best Set, Best Sound Design and Outstanding Performance). More>>

ALSO:

Film Awards: The Dark Horse Scores Big

An inspirational film based on real life Gisborne speed-chess coach An inspirational film based on real life Gisborne speed-chess coach Genesis Potini, made all the right moves to take out top honours along with five other awards at the Rialto Channel New Zealand Film Awards - nicknamed The Moas. More>>

ALSO:

Theatre: Ralph McCubbin Howell Wins 2014 Bruce Mason Award

The Bruce Mason Playwriting Award was presented to Ralph McCubbin Howell at the Playmarket Accolades in Wellington on 23 November 2014. More>>

ALSO:

One Good Tern: Fairy Tern Crowned NZ Seabird Of The Year

The fairy tern and the Fiji petrel traded the lead in the poll several times. But a late surge saw it come out on top with 1882 votes. The Fiji petrel won 1801 votes, and 563 people voted for the little blue penguin. More>>

Music Awards: Lorde Reigns Supreme

Following a hugely successful year locally and internationally, Lorde has done it again taking out no less than six Tuis at the 49th annual Vodafone New Zealand Music Awards. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
Education
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news