A Labour/Alliance government would have enough vote to govern on its own if an election had been held this week according to the first poll of the New Year published today in NBR newspaper.
The NBR - Compaq poll has Labour up to 45% from 39% at the election in the crucial party vote.
National is down two points from its election night result of 31% to 29%. The Alliance and Greens are level pegging on 7% ACT follows with 5% and NZ First has 3%.
Looking at the detailed tables in the polls some interesting observations can be made.
- Green party support is extremely strong in the 18-24 age group at 21% the same as National's support in the age group;
- National is polling higher in Christchurch - at 35% - than anywhere else while Wellingtonians strongly support Labour - 50%;
- The Green revolution is yet to reach Christchurch where the party is polling 3% as compared to 7% in Auckland and 10% in Wellington;
- New Zealand First's support among those aged under 50 is negligible and nearly all those who said they would vote NZ First were aged 50-59;
- men are almost twice as likely to support minor parties as women.
- since the change of government the numbers of people who think NZ is on the right track as opposed to the wrong track have swapped around. Before the election 53% thought NZ was on the wrong track, now 24% do. Before the election 34% thought NZ was on the right track. Now 59% of those polled think NZ is on the right track;
- young people are particularly upbeat about the future with 73% of those aged 18-24 saying they think NZ is on the right track. (It seems likely that this relates in part to changes to the Student Loans scheme.)
- people aged 35-39 are the least positive about the outlook with 34% saying they think NZ is on the wrong track.