Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


Look To The Government To Lead From The Front

Before Christmas the government's Speech from the Throne somewhat set the pace for the new Government. Forty-five minutes long and packed to the gills with ideas and plans the speech left many of those listening to it with a sense of surprise at just how much the new government had planned.

Today in the Budget Policy Statement the new government gets to say how much it will all cost.

Scoop will be attending the BPS lockup at Treasury this afternoon and will bring readers a report shortly after 2pm.

In the BPS - which is one of the key elements of the fiscal responsibility regime enacted by Ruth Richardson and Bill Birch in the Fiscal Responsibility Act - the government is required to produce three year fiscal forecasts of income and expenditure.

This can impose considerable discipline as the Fiscal Responsibility Act does not allow any of the fiddling of numbers which typically took place in the pre-fiscal responsibility days.

That said with this BPS the government is in the enviable position of being on the upswing of the economic cycle.

This means that as each month's fiscal accounts are published we are seeing the government's surplus estimates growing as tax revenues come in ahead of forecast.

In addition as it is typical in the field of economic forecasting for economists to underestimate growth on the way up and over-estimate it on the way down, what risk there is in the forecasts tends to be on the upside.

Add in the fact that a tiny increase in economic growth tends to have a marked impact on the fiscal balance and on the bottom line when the latest Treasury forecasts are published this afternoon there is likely to be lots more money in the kitty than previously thought.

This morning the Dominion is reporting that the government will probably spend an extra$850 million - more than it had already indicated it would spend - over the next three years. Scoop is inclined to think that if anything this may be on the low side.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen has indicated that the budget round will begin following the publication of the BPS forecasts and so something akin to a lolly scramble will shortly begin.

Under the National Government the BPS was by and large fairly thin on the detail of what exactly the government planned to spend any extra money it had on. We will find out today whether the same style will be adopted by Dr Cullen.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Werewolf: Living With Rio’s Olympic Ruins

Mariana Cavalcanti Critics of the Olympic project can point a discernible pattern in the delivery of Olympics-related urban interventions: the belated but rushed inaugurations of faulty and/or unfinished infrastructures... More>>

Live Blog On Now: Open Source//Open Society Conference

The second annual Open Source Open Society Conference is a 2 day event taking place on 22-23 August 2016 at Michael Fowler Centre in Wellington… Scoop is hosting a live blog summarising the key points of this exciting conference. More>>

ALSO:

Buildup:

Gordon Campbell: On The Politicising Of The War On Drugs In Sport

It hasn’t been much fun at all to see how “war on drugs in sport” has become a proxy version of the Cold War, fixated on Russia. This weekend’s banning of the Russian long jumper Darya Klishina took that fixation to fresh extremes. More>>

ALSO:

Binoy Kampmark: Kevin Rudd’s Failed UN Secretary General Bid

Few sights are sadder in international diplomacy than seeing an aging figure desperate for honours. In a desperate effort to net them, he scurries around, cultivating, prodding, wishing to be noted. Finally, such an honour is netted, in all likelihood just to shut that overly keen individual up. More>>

Open Source / Open Society: The Scoop Foundation - An Open Model For NZ Media

Access to accurate, relevant and timely information is a crucial aspect of an open and transparent society. However, in our digital society information is in a state of flux with every aspect of its creation, delivery and consumption undergoing profound redefinition... More>>

Keeping Out The Vote: Gordon Campbell On The US Elections

I’ll focus here on just two ways that dis-enfranchisement is currently occurring in the US: (a) by the rigging of the boundary lines for voter districts and (b) by demanding elaborate photo IDs before people are allowed to cast their vote. More>>

Ramzy Baroud: Being Black Palestinian - Solidarity As A Welcome Pathology

It should come as no surprise that the loudest international solidarity that accompanied the continued spate of the killing of Black Americans comes from Palestine; that books have already been written and published by Palestinians about the plight of their Black brethren. In fact, that solidarity is mutual. More>>

ALSO:


Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news