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NBR-UMR Insight Poll

NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW
Poll 110

[October 2000]

UMR Insight Limited

METHODOLOGY: The UMR Insight omnibus is a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years of age or older. Fieldwork was conducted from 5 October to 8 October 2000 at UMR Insight’s national interview facility in Auckland. The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is +/-3.6%.

SUMMARY

National 41% static
Labour 36% static
Green 6% down 1
Alliance 5% down 1
NZ First 4% up 1
ACT 3% down 1

PARTY VOTE

Under MMP you have two votes one for the candidate in the electorate you
live in, and the second for a party. Thinking about this party vote only,
if the general election were held today which party would you vote for?

::::::::::::::::::::::::::The::NZ
:::::::::::::::::::Base:National:Labour:Alliance:First::ACT:Green:Other
TOTAL RESPONDENTS:::::640::40.7%::36.0%::4.8%::4.1%::3.0%::6.3%::5.1%

AREA
Auckland::::::::180::44.8%::34.1%::2.8%::3.2%::3.7%::5.0%::6.4%
Provincial::::::::298::41.7%::36.2%::4.1%::5.4%::2.1%::7.6%::2.9%
Christchurch::::::::89::29.5%::32.8%::11.3%::4.4%::4.2%::6.7% 11.1%
Wellington::::::::73::40.7%::43.6%::4.6%::0.0%::3.5%::4.2%::3.4%

SEX
Male:::::::::::335::43.0%::31.4%::6.4%::5.6%::4.2%::7.0%::2.4%
Female::::::::: 305::38.2%::41.1%::3.1%::2.4%::1.6%::5.6%::8.0%

AGE GROUP
18-19:::::::::::20::24.7%::37.3%::0.0%::0.0%::0.0% 15.2% 22.8%
20-24:::::::::::29::49.2%::29.2%::0.0%::0.0%::4.4% 17.2%::0.0%
25-29:::::::::::63::40.2%::40.3%::0.0%::4.6%::5.9%::3.2%::5.8%
30-34:::::::::::57::59.6%::23.3%::4.5%::0.0%::2.2%::8.6%::1.8%
35-39:::::::::::89::40.2%::33.0%::1.1%::5.0%::3.9% 12.4%::4.4%
40-44:::::::::::73::45.0%::39.5%::6.9%::2.0%::1.2%::1.4%::4.0%
45-49:::::::::::71::45.3%::31.1%::9.5%::4.9%::0.0%::7.1%::2.1%
50-54:::::::::::65::36.0%::37.5%::0.0%::3.6%::9.2%::4.5%::9.2%
55-59:::::::::::47::35.7%::30.3%::0.0%::9.4%::0.0%::5.7% 18.9%
60 Plus:::::::::126::32.8%::45.1%::12.2%::5.5%::2.0%::2.4%::0.0%

PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000:::::127::23.4%::43.8%::6.7%::3.8%::0.0%::9.2% 13.1%
$15,001-25,000::::::95::32.0%::33.2%::8.8%::6.2%::1.0%::9.4%::9.4%
$25,001-30,000::::::74::38.8%::35.6%::2.3%::5.9%::6.8%::9.3%::1.3%
$30,001-40,000::::::98::46.7%::32.7%::1.7%::6.6%::6.1%::4.1%::2.1%
$40,001-50,000::::::72::43.2%::35.2%::8.4%::2.1%::3.5%::4.2%::3.4%
$50,001-70,000::::::60::60.6%::29.7%::5.6%::2.4%::0.0%::1.7%::0.0%
More than $70,000:::::39::64.3%::22.7%::2.5%::0.0%::5.4%::5.1%::0.0%

PARTY VOTE – MINOR PARTIES

As you may know under MMP you have two votes, one for the candidate in the electorate you live in and the second for a party. Thinking about this party vote only, if the general election were held today which party would you vote for?


ELECTION 99 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
CHP 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.6 1.2 1.9
Future NZ 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2
ALCP 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 - - 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.2
'Maori' Party - - - 0.2 - - 0.5 - - -
United NZ 0.5 0.3 - 0.9 - 0.3 0.3 0.7 - -
Other 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 1.8 2.8


THE MOOD

Generally speaking are things in New Zealand heading in the right direction
or are they off on the wrong track?

:::::::::::::::::::::Right
:::::::::::::::Base::Direction::Wrong Track:::::Unsure
TOTAL RESPONDENTS::::::::750::::::27%:::::61%:::::12%

AREA
Auckland:::::::::::208::::::30%:::::60%:::::10%
Provincial:::::::::::365::::::25%:::::62%:::::13%
Christchurch:::::::::::95::::::34%:::::54%:::::12%
Wellington:::::::::::82::::::23%:::::62%:::::15%

SEX
Male::::::::::::::375::::::26%:::::64%:::::10%
Female:::::::::::: 375::::::28%:::::58%:::::14%

AGE GROUP
18-19::::::::::::::20::::::25%:::::60%:::::15%
20-24::::::::::::::35::::::14%:::::69%:::::17%
25-29::::::::::::::70::::::30%:::::60%:::::10%
30-34::::::::::::::76::::::20%:::::72%::::::8%
35-39::::::::::::::102::::::29%:::::57%:::::14%
40-44::::::::::::::92::::::22%:::::69%::::::9%
45-49::::::::::::::85::::::28%:::::60%:::::12%
50-54::::::::::::::79::::::28%:::::63%::::::9%
55-59::::::::::::::46::::::24%:::::70%::::::6%
60 Plus::::::::::::144::::::35%:::::47%:::::18%

PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000::::::::145::::::34%:::::51%:::::15%
$15,001-25,000::::::::100::::::31%:::::52%:::::17%
$25,001-30,000:::::::::88::::::25%:::::65%:::::10%
$30,001-40,000::::::::111::::::24%:::::70%::::::6%
$40,001-50,000:::::::::74::::::23%:::::59%:::::18%
$50,001-70,000:::::::::69::::::27%:::::67%::::::6%
More than $70,000::::::::49::::::24%:::::76%::::::0%

ENDS

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