Top Scoops

Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | Scoop News | Wellington Scoop | Community Scoop | Search

 

Supercomputer Weather: Tokyo Typhoons Nos. 2 and 3

The above forecast image from the NOAA supercomputer weather model shows the arrival of Typhoon Danas in downtown Tokyo on Thursday.

And according to the NOAA medium range forecast, Tokyo, which has been struck by only two typhoons in the last two decades, is facing the prospects of being battered by three typhoons in the space of a single month.

Typhoon Danas is weaker than typhoon Pabuk (see… Destination Tokyo For Typhoon Pabuk, Sludge Report #103 - A Perfect Storm For Kyoto and Typhoon Pabuk Lands, Heads For Tokyo ) which hit the Japanese capital late last month and killed several people during its passage over the Japanese mainland.

See the following links for detail of the forecast path of Typhoon Danas:
+12 Hours
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas12hrs.gif
+24 Hours
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas24hrs.gif
+36 Hours
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas36hrs.gif
+48 Hours
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/danas48hrs.gif

See also the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre’s forecast path for Danas:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/wp1901.gif

However, while Danas may be weakening and will soon have crossed Japan heading north, another typhoon, Nari, is already gathering strength over the sea near the island of Okinawa, and is threatening to wreck considerable damage on the Japanese Islands this coming weekend.

By Saturday, according to the NOAA supercomputer weather model, Typhoon Nari will have reached hurricane intensity, and its outer edges will be approaching Tokyo as the above image shows.

The current NOAA forecast path for Typhoon Nari shows it passing the Japanese islands to the south, heading east.

See the following links for detail of the forecast path of Typhoon Nari:
September 15th
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2015th.gif
September 16th
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2016th.gif
September 17th
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2017th.gif
September 18th
http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/weather/japantyphoon/typhoon2018th.gif

See also the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre’s forecast path for Nari:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/wp2001.gif

However typhoons and hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable in their paths, and in earlier forecasts for this storm NOAA has placed Tokyo in its direct path. It is also worth noting that most computer forecast models initially predicted that both Pabuk and Danas would pass by to the South of Japan.

For a live reading on the status of these typhoons and any others around the globe see the excellent resources at…

The University of Wisconsin
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/

and…

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Gordon Campbell: Are Only Old People Likely To Vote For Simon Bridges?

Around the world, young people seem to be gravitating to left wing policies and parties, leaving the old to prop up the conservative parties... the size of the gap suggests there’s more involved to this evolution than the usual clichés about the young being idealistic and the old being more realistic. More>>

Gordon Campbell: On The Fuss Over The PM’s Pacific Forum Trip

Truly, the abuse being levelled at PM Jacinda Ardern for doing her job at the Pacific Islands Forum shows just how much – and on how many levels – Ardern seems to enrage a goodly number of citizens. More>>

Gordon Campbell: On MP Pay And The REAL P.C. Danger Zone

There has never been anything remotely credible about the way parliamentarians would paint themselves as the helpless victims of the Remuneration Authority when it came to their pay increases... More>>