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Supercomputer Weather: Tears Of Gethsemene?

Long range forecasts from the NOAA Medium Range Supercompter Forecast show rain in the Holy Land this Ash Wednesday, February 13th, the beginning of the Christian holy season of Lent.

The following images were produced by the NOAA supercomputer on Friday. They show a period from the beginning of Ash Wednesday NZT through 48 hours to the end of Ash Wednesday on the US Pacific coast and in the Pacific (Thursday 14th – NZT).

Updated NOAA forecasts produced today (See…. 1 - 2 - 3 ) further confirm the timing of the cloudburst which looks to be centered over the Palestinian Occupied Territories of the West Bank and Northern Israel.

Rain is also expected earlier in the week in Israel today and on the 11th. ( See forecast map)

North of Israel Ash Wednesday’s rain are also forecast throughout Lebanon and in parts of Syria, (see wider area forecast.gif)

For close-up pictures of the cloudburst see… Closeup 1- Closeup 2

- Rain is shown in mm per 12 hours in the following series of images in the coloured bits. Orange shows the most intense rain. Typically NOAA forecasts underestimate the intensity of rainstorms at their center as the rain is averaged over large areas.


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