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Poll Watch: Starting Order - UMR May Demographics

The following are the demographic tables from the May 2002 UMR Insight Political Poll. This information, not often made available to the public, is the bread and butter of political strategists.

The tables below provide more detailed information on how groups of people, by income, occupation, sex, age and ethnicity indicated they intended to vote at that time (in late May).

From the point of view of the upcoming election this information provides a snapshot of the starting order, the battleground of public consciensness in which the parties will be working over the next six weeks.

It gives an impression of which areas of the public parties are doing well with and getting their message through to, and which areas they are not.

It is very important to note however that within many of the sub-categories the sample sizes are very small (e.g. there are only 40 students). Readers should therefore be careful not to take such information as gospel. It is nevertheless indicative and still useful for trend analysis. The trick is to always look at the first column of numbers as you read (Base) which contains the sample size in that sub-category.

Results in this report are based upon questions asked in the UMR Research nation-wide omnibus survey. This is a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years of age and over.

Fieldwork was conducted from 30th May to 3rd June 2002 at UMR Research’s national interview facility in Auckland.

The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is + or -3.6%.

THE TABLES...

THE MOOD

***************************************

QUESTION: Generally speaking are things in New Zealand heading in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?


:::::::Base:::: Right Direction::::Wrong Track:: Unsure

ALL:::::::::::::::: 750::::::::62%::::::27%::::::11%

Auckland::::::::::::208::::::::62%::::::29%:::::: 9%
Provincial::::::::::365::::::::61%::::::29%::::::10%
Christchurch:::::::: 95::::::::58%::::::25%::::::17%
Wellington:::::::::: 82::::::::73%::::::16%::::::11%

RURAL:::::::::::::: 133::::::::55%::::::35%::::::10%

SEX
Male::::::::::::::::375::::::::64%::::::26%::::::10%
Female::::::::::::::375::::::::61%::::::28%::::::11%

AGE GROUP
Under 30::::::::::::111::::::::66%::::::28%:::::: 6%
30-44:::::::::::::: 242::::::::64%::::::22%::::::14%
45-59:::::::::::::: 219::::::::58%::::::34%:::::: 8%
60 Plus:::::::::::: 178::::::::63%::::::25%::::::12%

OCCUPATION
Professionals,::::::148::::::::70%::::::24%:::::: 6%
::Managers
Technicians,:::::::: 64::::::::56%::::::31%::::::13%
::Associate
::Professionals
Clerks:::::::::::::: 41::::::::63%::::::22%::::::15%
Sales and Service::::::73::::::::70%::::::22%:::::: 8%
::workers
Blue collar:::::::: 134::::::::61%::::::31%:::::: 8%
Students:::::::::::: 47::::::::57%::::::32%::::::11%
Retired:::::::::::: 127::::::::62%::::::24%::::::14%
Homemaker::::::::::::68::::::::54%::::::31%::::::15%
Not employed:::::::: 22::::::::50%::::::41%:::::: 9%
Self employed::::::::22::::::::59%::::::23%::::::18%

PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000:::::::: 170::::::::59%::::::29%::::::12%
$15,001-25,000::::::133::::::::62%::::::27%::::::11%
$25,001-30,000:::::: 57::::::::63%::::::28%:::::: 9%
$30,001-40,000::::::108::::::::70%::::::23%:::::: 7%
$40,001-50,000:::::: 75::::::::64%::::::28%:::::: 8%
$50,001-70,000:::::: 79::::::::67%::::::22%::::::11%
More than $70,000::::::39::::::::69%::::::26%:::::: 5%

PARTY VOTE
National::::::::::::187::::::::48%::::::39%::::::13%
Labour::::::::::::::345::::::::78%::::::14%:::::: 8%
The Alliance-Laila::::::3::::::::69%::::::31%:::::: 0%
::Harre Party
NZ First:::::::::::: 23::::::::29%::::::57%::::::14%
ACT::::::::::::::::::30::::::::54%::::::46%:::::: 0%
Green::::::::::::::::47::::::::51%::::::42%:::::: 7%
Progressive:::::::::: 8::::::::51%::::::36%::::::13%
::Coalition
Other::::::::::::::::11:::::::: 8%::::::59%::::::33%

SOFT VOTERS:::::::: 149::::::::53%::::::30%::::::17%

MAORI OR PART MAORI::71::::::::64%::::::25%::::::11%
NON-MAORI:::::::::: 679::::::::62%::::::27%::::::11%

THE PARTY VOTE

************************************************************************

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::The::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Pro-
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Alliance:::::::::::::::::::::::::gressive
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Laila:::NZ:::::::::::::::::::Coali-
:::::::::::::::::: Base National Labour::::Harre First:: ACT Green:::: tion Other

ALL:::::::::::::::: 654::::::28.6%::52.8%:::: 0.5%::3.5%::4.5%::7.2%:::: 1.3%::1.6%

Auckland::::::::::::182::::::23.5%::53.0%:::: 0.0%::3.9%::7.1%::8.6%:::: 1.7%::2.2%
Provincial::::::::::316::::::30.3%::52.1%:::: 0.6%::4.0%::3.9%::7.0%:::: 0.6%::1.5%
Christchurch::::::::::84::::::36.1%::51.4%:::: 0.0%::2.3%::1.6%::3.6%:::: 3.9%::1.1%
Wellington:::::::::: 72::::::24.9%::56.6%:::: 1.4%::1.4%::4.5%::8.7%:::: 0.0%::2.5%

RURAL:::::::::::::: 115::::::41.2%::39.9%:::: 0.0%::4.6%::4.2%::9.2%:::: 0.9%::0.0%

SEX
Male::::::::::::::::332::::::30.4%::47.8%:::: 0.6%::4.0%::7.4%::7.0%:::: 0.9%::1.9%
Female::::::::::::::321::::::26.6%::57.8%:::: 0.3%::3.0%::1.6%::7.5%:::: 1.7%::1.5%

AGE GROUP
Under 30:::::::::::: 92::::::22.6%::55.1%:::: 1.1%::1.0%::3.5% 15.7%:::: 0.0%::1.0%
30-44:::::::::::::: 207::::::26.5%::58.4%:::: 0.5%::0.5%::2.3%::8.6%:::: 1.0%::2.2%
45-59:::::::::::::: 193::::::31.3%::43.0%:::: 0.5%::5.0%::8.4%::7.2%:::: 2.1%::2.5%
60 Plus:::::::::::: 161::::::31.3%::55.9%:::: 0.0%::6.9%::3.4%::0.6%:::: 1.3%::0.6%

OCCUPATION
Professionals,:::::::135::::::24.9%::51.7%:::: 0.8%::4.7%::5.7%::6.3%:::: 3.9%::2.0%
::Managers
Technicians,::::::::::59::::::22.2%::53.1%:::: 0.0%::3.6%::3.8% 15.7%:::: 0.0%::1.6%
::Associate
::Professionals
Clerks:::::::::::::: 36::::::31.9%::58.8%:::: 0.0%::0.0%::6.5%::2.8%:::: 0.0%::0.0%
Sales and Services:: 60::::::20.7%::61.4%:::: 1.6%::0.0%::6.0%::3.7%:::: 1.7%::4.9%
::workers
Blue collar::::::::::113::::::35.9%::45.7%:::: 0.8%::0.9%::5.9%::9.2%:::: 0.0%::1.6%
Students:::::::::::: 40::::::22.0%::54.2%:::: 0.0%::0.0%::0.0% 23.8%:::: 0.0%::0.0%
Retired:::::::::::: 114::::::32.7%::53.0%:::: 0.0%::8.0%::2.7%::0.9%:::: 1.9%::0.8%
Homemaker::::::::::::55::::::25.5%::61.7%:::: 0.0%::1.8%::0.0%::7.7%:::: 0.0%::3.3%
Not employed::::::::::18::::::21.6%::58.8%:::: 0.0%::6.5%::7.1%::6.0%:::: 0.0%::0.0%
Self employed::::::::::20::::::51.6%::30.5%:::: 0.0%::5.0% 12.9%::0.0%:::: 0.0%::0.0%

PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000::::::147::::::22.1%::61.9%:::: 0.7%::3.1%::1.8%::8.1%:::: 1.5%::0.8%
$15,001-25,000:::::::121::::::29.5%::51.4%:::: 0.8%::5.5%::1.8%::7.7%:::: 1.8%::1.5%
$25,001-30,000:::::::50::::::26.9%::46.3%:::: 0.0%::2.0% 12.7%::8.4%:::: 0.0%::3.7%
$30,001-40,000:::::::94::::::26.6%::57.8%:::: 0.0%::2.3%::1.4%::8.7%:::: 1.2%::2.0%
$40,001-50,000:::::::70::::::37.1%::41.8%:::: 1.3%::2.9%::3.9%::8.8%:::: 2.9%::1.3%
$50,001-70,000::::::::71::::::30.8%::54.2%:::: 0.0%::1.7%::7.4%::4.6%:::: 0.0%::1.3%
More than $70,000:::: 38::::::26.8%::42.4%:::: 0.0%::5.1% 18.0%::2.7%:::: 2.6%::2.4%

SOFT VOTERS::::::::::95::::::43.1%::38.8%:::: 0.0%::2.1%::3.4%::6.4%:::: 3.3%::2.9%

MAORI OR PART MAORI: 56::::::10.4%::71.6%:::: 3.4%::2.2%::1.7%::7.3%:::: 1.8%::1.6%
NON-MAORI:::::::: 598::::::30.3%::51.0%:::: 0.2%::3.6%::4.8%::7.2%:::: 1.2%::1.7%

ENDS

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