Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


The Truth About War And U.S. Oil Stocks

While oil prices have fallen 16% in the past four days and petrol prices have followed, those thinking that the oil crisis of 2003 is over would be well-advised to look past these short term market movements and glance at the fundamentals of supply and demand presently operating in the market.

It has been suggested (See…Market Rally May Not Be What It Seems ) that we are experiencing a rigged gold and stockmarket in advance of war in Iraq, the following clearly suggests we are also experiencing a rigged oil market.

The two graphs below are produced from the offical U.S. Department of Energy's Weekly Petroleum report the data of which is accessible…. HERE.

Firstly we have a graph showing 13 years of US petroleum stocks. This shows aggregate US stocks as distinct from US Crude Oil Stocks, the figure for which is usually referred to in oil market analysis reports.

In the last DOE market report, published last Thursday NZT, the figure for US Crude Oil Stocks fell report under 270 million barrels the so-called Lower Operating Level for the first time. This sparked the most recent spike in prices close to $40 a barrel.

As can be seen total U.S. oil stocks have fallen sharply through 2003 and are now below 900 million barrels for the first time since November 2000, during another period when prices went to USD$40 a barrel.

More significantly this graph clearly shows that U.S. oil stocks are now at the lowest level in the last 13 years at least, which is as long as this statistical series goes. Back in 1990 US refinery inputs were on average 20% lower than they are now, as was consumption.

Significantly nothing has changed since the report upon which this data was published last week, that is excepting for the fact that we have moved closer to war.

What is not immediately apparent from this graph is the rate of decline in total stocks.

It would appear this issue has not been canvassed widely in most market commentaries either as they tend to concentrate on the Crude Stocks Figure. However it would appear from analysing the figures more closely that U.S. refineries have been reducing their production in order to maintain Crude Stocks are levels more acceptable to the market.

The result of this has been to move evidence of declining stocks down the table to downstream products, namely diesel oil, petroleum, heating oil, jet fuel etc.

This graph shows just the past three years of data, and projects forward the current rate of decline in oil stocks through till the middle of May. During this period – with a cessation of Iraqi oil exports to the U.S. - total U.S. stocks can be expected to at least continue their current rate of decline.

If this happens U.S. oil stocks will be by May at levels never experienced in recent history, nearly a full 100 million barrels lower than the previously lowest ever level.

And the market is punting that the price is going to stabilise!

Go figure.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Werewolf: Living With Rio’s Olympic Ruins

Mariana Cavalcanti Critics of the Olympic project can point a discernible pattern in the delivery of Olympics-related urban interventions: the belated but rushed inaugurations of faulty and/or unfinished infrastructures... More>>

Live Blog On Now: Open Source//Open Society Conference

The second annual Open Source Open Society Conference is a 2 day event taking place on 22-23 August 2016 at Michael Fowler Centre in Wellington… Scoop is hosting a live blog summarising the key points of this exciting conference. More>>

ALSO:

Buildup:

Gordon Campbell: On The Politicising Of The War On Drugs In Sport

It hasn’t been much fun at all to see how “war on drugs in sport” has become a proxy version of the Cold War, fixated on Russia. This weekend’s banning of the Russian long jumper Darya Klishina took that fixation to fresh extremes. More>>

ALSO:

Binoy Kampmark: Kevin Rudd’s Failed UN Secretary General Bid

Few sights are sadder in international diplomacy than seeing an aging figure desperate for honours. In a desperate effort to net them, he scurries around, cultivating, prodding, wishing to be noted. Finally, such an honour is netted, in all likelihood just to shut that overly keen individual up. More>>

Open Source / Open Society: The Scoop Foundation - An Open Model For NZ Media

Access to accurate, relevant and timely information is a crucial aspect of an open and transparent society. However, in our digital society information is in a state of flux with every aspect of its creation, delivery and consumption undergoing profound redefinition... More>>

Keeping Out The Vote: Gordon Campbell On The US Elections

I’ll focus here on just two ways that dis-enfranchisement is currently occurring in the US: (a) by the rigging of the boundary lines for voter districts and (b) by demanding elaborate photo IDs before people are allowed to cast their vote. More>>

Ramzy Baroud: Being Black Palestinian - Solidarity As A Welcome Pathology

It should come as no surprise that the loudest international solidarity that accompanied the continued spate of the killing of Black Americans comes from Palestine; that books have already been written and published by Palestinians about the plight of their Black brethren. In fact, that solidarity is mutual. More>>

ALSO:


Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news