Supercomputer Weather: Tracking Ivan's Landfall

IN THIS EDITION OF SCOOP HURRICANE WATCH:
- NASA MODIS Satellite Image
- Introduction
- Latest National Hurricane Center Forecast & Discussion
- NOAA GFS Model Supercomputer Landfall Impact Forecast

As big as Frances and packing winds similar intensity to those of Charley, monster Hurricane Ivan remains on course for a midday Thursday (local time - Friday morning NZT) landfall near the Missisipi/Alabama border on the U.S. Southern Coast. Mandatory mass evacuations are underway for several hundred kms on either side of the expected landfall location.

The main exception to the evacuation orders is the heavily populated urban area of New Orleans which is bracing itself for a potentially enormous disaster should Ivan take a more Westerly track than that presently expected. New Orleans authorities have not ordered a mandatory evacuation as they lack the means to enforce one. New Orleans which is built on land below sea level has long been thought extremely vulnerable to a direct hit by a large hurricane. (See also.. Ivan could sink New Orleans - The Australian)

Meanwhile if three hurricanes within 40 days was not enough, a new tropical storm, Jeanne, is presently located near Puerto Rico and is forecast to reach hurricane status over the next 24 hours and is currently tracking on a very similar path to that followed by Hurricane Frances directly towards Florida.

So far the 2004 hurricane season is shaping up as one of the worst on record.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150233
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IVAN IS MAINTAINING 120 KT...CAT. 4...INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE CORE WILL PASS OVER SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE COAST...A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...WE EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...NOW 340/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IVAN IS BEING STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS ON THE PREDICTED TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 5 DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES BUT RATHER WILL STALL OR MOVE ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SO THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE... SHOWS NO MOVEMENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 25.1N 87.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 87.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 28.6N 88.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 30.6N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 87.6W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0000Z 35.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND

+ 30 Hours

+ 36 Hours

+ 42 Hours

+ 48 Hours

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