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TV3 Poll: Labour Extends Their Lead Over National…

3 News TNS Opinion Poll Results
30th September to 6th October 2004

6pm, 08 October 2004
“TNS is the new name for NFO/CM Research, New Zealand’s leading consultative market research and intelligence company”

Projected number of seats in the House on the basis of the latest poll results

Number of seats

Option |-----|Option
One* |-----| Two*

Labour 61 |-----| 58
National 45 |-----| 43
NZ First 7 |-----| 7
Green Party 7 |-----| 7
Progressive - |-----| 1
ACT - |-----| -
United Future - |-----| 4
Total seats 120 |-----| 120

One* These figures include only those parties who gain above the 5% threshold on the Party Vote, and do not take into account Electorate Vote support

Two* These figures are based on Progressive and United Future winning one electorate seat as currently

3 News TNS Opinion Poll

Labour Extends Their Lead Over National…

Since July, Labour has increased its lead over National. The gap between the two parties now stands at 12 points. Helen Clark’s position as preferred Prime Minister has strengthened over the last two months. However, preference for Don Brash has decreased by 8 points.

Most people continue to think that Helen Clark is performing well as PM. Perceptions of Don Brash’s performance have weakened amongst New Zealander’s - including National voters.

Fewer people believe that Don Brash would be a capable leader or would be good in a crisis compared to Helen Clark who remains stable on both of these statements.

In general, New Zealander’s confidence remains stable in terms of unemployment and economy levels. But on a positive note, more people think that NZ is becoming a better place to live.

3 News TNS Opinion Poll

Research Methodology

Date poll was conducted
Interviews were conducted over the period 30 September to 6 October 2004

Sample Size
1000 voter eligible New Zealanders aged 18+

Sampling Technique
Telephone Interviews. Random generation of telephone numbers with quota sampling to ensure representative cross section by age, sex and geography.

Sample Coverage
National including rural, secondary urban and main urban areas

Sample Error
Maximum of 3.1% expressed at a 95% confidence level


Chart 1
MMP Voting: Party Voting

If a general election was held yesterday under MMP, which political party would you have voted for with your Party Vote? That is, for the political party you most want to be represented in parliament.

Click for big version

Chart 2
MMP Voting : Electorate Vote

If a general election was held yesterday, using MMP, which party would you have voted for, with your electorate vote? That is, for the MP in your area.

Click for big version

Chart 3
Preferred Prime Minister

If you were able to vote for any politician in New Zealand to be Prime Minister, for whom would you vote?

Click for big version

Chart 4
How is Helen Clark Performing?

Thinking now about the Prime Minister. How would you rate the performance of Helen Clark as Prime Minister? Overall, would you say that as Prime Minister she is performing well or poorly? Is that Very … or Fairly …?

Click for big version

Chart 5
How is Don Brash Performing?

And now thinking about Don Brash, the leader of the National Party in opposition. How would you rate his performance. Overall would you say he is performing well or poorly? Is that Very … or Fairly …?

Click for big version

Chart 6
Views About Helen Clark

I am going to read out some things, both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Helen Clark. Would you say she…

Click for big version

Chart 7
Views About Don Brash

I would now like you to tell me which of these statements you feel fit Don Brash. Would you say he…

Click for big version

Chart 8
Measures Of Confidence

NZ Economy improving or deteriorating over next three months / Unemployment over the next three months / Is NZ becoming a better or worse place to live.

Click for big version

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