Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


Latino Vote Expert Disputes Exit Polls

Latino Vote Expert Disputes Exit Polls


By Rosalio Muñoz
People's Weekly World Newspaper - NYC, 11/11/04 11:04
From: http://www.pww.org/article/articleview/6081/1/240/
Click For Spanish Text

LOS ANGELES — Latino leaders are disputing election exit polls that indicate a more than 10 percent increase in support for George W. Bush in 2004 compared to 2000. They point to an exit poll designed to reflect Latino demographics indicating that the Latino vote stayed at 2-to-1 for the Democratic ticket.

An exit poll by Edison Media Research for major media outlets, including AP, CBS, CNN and NBC, widely publicized its projection that the Latino presidential vote was 53 percent for Kerry to 44 percent for Bush. A Los Angeles Times exit poll seemingly validated this with a 54-45 breakdown.

“It’s simply not so,” said Antonio Gonzalez, who as president of both the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project (SWVREP) and its research arm, the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI), is a foremost authority on Latino voting trends. The WCVI conducted its own exit poll that showed a 68-31 margin for Kerry.

SWVREP has been conducting voter projects among Latinos since 1974 and has spearheaded the more than tripling of the Latino national vote. Its experience with national media polls has consistently showed an undercount of urban Latinos in their methodology, Gonzalez said in an interview with the World.

While the majority of the national population is non-urban, Latinos have the highest urban concentration of all national groups, Gonzalez said. The 2000 census had Latinos making up 12.5 percent of the nation’s population, but 19.3 percent of the population in the country’s cities. While the majority of Latinos vote Democratic, non-urban Latinos do so proportionately less. Most polls survey a larger number of non-urban voters. The East LA area has the most concentrated Latino population at over 96 percent. The area voted 84 percent for Kerry.

The WCVI poll was focused solely on the Latino electorate with counties and precincts selected on Latino electoral demographics, said Gonzalez, who pointed out that the Edison poll determined Latinos were 8 percent of the overall vote, while the LA Times had 5 percent.

With an estimated overall turnout of 115 million, the first poll’s numbers would have 9.2 million Latinos, of the 10 million registered, voting. The LA Times would indicate only 5.75 million, less than voted in 2000. Neither number is credible, according to Gonzalez.

The WCVI poll is about to be updated in line with voter turnout data from the states, Gonzalez said, with the breakdown closer to 65-35 for Kerry, a slight improvement for Bush. WCVI conducted an additional poll for Florida alone, which showed 52 percent for Kerry and 45.7 percent for Bush, while in 2000 it was 61 for Bush to 39 for Gore.

“We have been doing battle over accuracy with the national polls’ suburban biases … notably with the LA Times poll stating Latinos voted in the majority for California’s anti-immigrant ballot initiative … we’re more than ready to do battle again,” said Gonzalez.

*************

The author can be reached at rosalio_munoz@sbcglobal.net.

RELATED FROM THIS SOURCE:
Vote barriers, theft charges swirl around election
By Terrie Albano

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Gordon Campbell: On The Ethics Of Publishing The Trump Dossier

The controversy over the dossier purporting to show US President-elect Donald Trump’s alleged ties with Russia has been virtually overshadowed by the related controversy over whether the Buzzfeed site should have published the dossier in the first place... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell:
On Meryl Streep’s Speech

Primarily, Meryl Streep’s critical speech at the Golden Globes – which is the award ceremony hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – was a defence of journalism and of journalists... More>>

New HiveMind Project: What Should We Do About Sugar?

While most people agree that increased sugar consumption is a major cause of too many New Zealanders being overweight and obese, what we should do about this remains a matter of debate and argument. More>>

ALSO:


Gordon Campbell: On Vladimir Putin’s Wonderful, Fabulous, Very Good Year

Safe to say that no-one, but no-one has had a better 2016 than Vladimir Putin. What an annus mirabilis it has been for him. Somehow, Russia got away with directly interfering in the US election process, such that a friendly oligarch is about to take up residence in the White House, rather than a genuine rival. More>>

ALSO:


Gordon Campbell: On The Media Normalisation Of Trump

We all supposedly agree that the media is going to hell in a tabloid handbasket, but the trends to the contrary can be a bit harder to spot. In his 1970s book The Right Stuff, Tom Wolfe had mocked the way the media instinctively acts as what he called The Victorian Gentleman. More>>

ALSO:

Binoy Kampmark: The Reality Of Fake News

Fake news as reality; the inability to navigate the waters in which it swims; a weakness in succumbing to material best treated with a huge pinch of salt. That, we are told, is the new condition of the global information environment. More>>

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news