Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


Data On Associated Press Tally Of "New" Votes

News: Election 2004: New Data on Associated Press Tally of "New" Votes Uncovered in Ohio Hand- and Machine-Recounts
The Nashua Advocate
By ADVOCATE STAFF
http://www.nashuaadvocate.blogspot.com/

In an article slated for release at 12:01 A.M. on Saturday, December 18th, the Associated Press will report that, with 74% of votes recounted from the November 2nd, 2004 election, 949 new net votes have been uncovered.

While it is impossible to calculate what percentage of these new votes were uncovered via manual recounts, and what percentage from machine recounts -- the AP claims, in general terms, that the new votes were engendered by "hanging chads that came loose when punch-card ballots were handled again or rerun through tallying machines" -- if these 949 votes came primarily from the 3% hand-recounts, a statewide manual recount would be expected to accumulate approximately 42,320 new net votes. While this total could be much lower (if machine-recounts, not hand-recounts, also loosened many chads) or much higher (if ballot-prepping and precinct-targeting make the 3%-of-ballots recounts conducted thus far unrepresentative of the state as a whole) in the judgment of The Advocate this estimate seems to be a well-grounded, middle-of-the-road figure.

Of course, this figure refers only to new net votes; The Advocate has already posited, in this space, that new gross votes would, of necessity, be much greater in number, perhaps -- and this estimate still seems feasible, albeit slightly more attentuated with current data -- as high as 100,000 new ballots counted.

Those wondering how two major-party candidates could "lose" votes in a tally, thereby allowing "gross" votes added overall to be much higher than "net" votes reported need simply consider that A) manual recounts can show that a vote presumed to be for a candidate was in fact an overvote (e.g., through double-punching, write-in votes, or other markings on the ballot; B) manual recounts can show that a vote presumed to be for a major-party candidate was in fact for a minor-party candidate; C) manual recounts can show that a vote tallied for one candidate was in fact an undervote, either because of machine error designating the ballot incorrectly, or because a visual inspection of the ballot suggests that the ballot does not meet Ohio's "two-corner" rule for hanging chads, or because a manual recount uncovers disparities in poll-books or polling-guides which invalidate altogether individual votes for one candidate or another; D) manual recounts can show that a ballot was illegally filed as either a provisional or absentee ballot, thus striking altogether a given vote for a candidate; and E) manual recounts can find new undervotes or count as valid existing undervotes.

In short, it cannot be presumed that every vote gained for Kerry was lost to Bush, or vice versa, and that therefore "net votes gained for each candidate equals gross votes gained for the two candidates together." Those with much greater faith in ballot-counting than our Staff may wish to reduce The Advocate's estimated statistical disparity between net and gross votes and allow, therefore, that a statewide manual recount would "only" result in 60,000 or so new gross votes -- not enough to swing the election in itself, but, when combined with other coting irregularities and an existing crop of 92,000 undervotes, perhaps still enough to do so.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Gordon Campbell: On The Myopia Of The Business News

Listening to the business news is a bit like eavesdropping on the radio transmissions from space aliens. There is no discernible connection between the concerns of the captains of these space ships – the bank economists and the finance house spokesmen – and the concerns of ordinary listeners back on Planet Earth. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Clinton, Sanders, Trump And Cruz

Come November, the world will have a new US president-elect and the least unlikely winner still looks to be Hillary Clinton. Right now though, the polls are showing a rocky stretch ahead for her in the immediate future. More>>

ALSO:

Binoy Kampmark: Sean Penn And El Chapo - Vanity, Hollywood And Reportage

Leaving aside Sean Penn’s personal history with drug use, let alone alleged efforts to get a slice of celebrity in portraying a drug lord, the furore surrounding his interview with El Chapo is instructive in a few respects. One is worth noting: the blind rage it has provoked with some US political figures and advocates who show how utterly lacking in understanding they are of their own liberal market system... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Podemos, And Spain’s Election Stalemate

By hard grassroots effort, it convincingly rejected the fragmented, individualising forces that had shaped political life for the past few decades – instead, it organized its supporters on the basis of their common, communal experience via collective decision-making aimed at rolling back (a) the austerity-driven cutbacks in public services and (b) the home evictions of those unable to meet their mortgage payments. More>>

Binoy Kampmark: Merkel, Refugees And The Cologne Attacks

Huge pressure was already on Angela Merkel’s shoulders prior to the New Year celebrations. When it came in its waves of chaos on the eve, the security services in Cologne were found wanting. The police document from Cologne, leaked to Der Spiegel, speaks of chaos and lack of control. More>>

NZ Media In 2015: ‘Digital First’ Strategies Put Journalists Last

Journalism in New Zealand is threatened by the constant culling of editorial jobs and current affairs programmes… Additionally, journalists investigating issues which are in public interest have become under scrutiny as seen most clearly in the cases of Nicky Hager and Heather Du-Plessis Allen. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news