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Supercomputer Weather: Wati Weakens On NZ Approach


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Multi-spectral Satellite Image of Cyclone Wati – source JTWC

Supercomputer Weather: Wati Weakens On NZ Approach


Report compiled by Alastair Thompson

USEFUL LINKS:

  • NZ MetService – Severe Weather Warnings
  • Weather Underground South Pacific Computer Models
  • US Navy/USAF Joint Typhoon Warning Center
  • Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
  • Google News Search "Cyclone Wati"
  • The latest NOAA GFS Supercomputer forecasts for Cyclone Wati show the remnants of cyclone weakening considerably in the Tasman Sea before making landfall north of Auckland on Monday night.


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    Computer Model Simulations Of Cyclone Wati's Path

    The image above from the WeatherUnderground.com show that the US Navy's Nogaps model forecast is now close to agreement with the NOAA GFS forecast. Both show the remnants of the cyclone coming close to New Zealand's North Island.

    At present considerable uncertainty remains over the extent to which these remnants will dissipate as the cyclone bumps up against a high forming in the southern Tasman Sea.

    >
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    Joint Typhoon Warning Center Cyclone Wait Warning Graphic

    The most recent Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast - the graphic of which appears above - is forecasting the cyclone to rapidly weaken over the coming 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds at the end of the period are forecast at 35 knots near the bottom of the range for a tropical storm.

    Earlier today the MetService issued a press release advising that: "The most likely scenario at this stage is that the whole system spreads out and a frontal system forms that may bring significant northeast wind and rain to the northern North Island and maybe the northwest of the South Island on Monday and Tuesday."


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    Satellite Image Of Cyclone Wati Taken Yesterday by NASA's Modis Satellite


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    Below you can see the latest predictions from the NOAA GFS Supercomputer Model on what will happen when the remains of Cyclone Wati hits the North Island on Monday.

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    NOAA SUPERCOMPUTER FORECAST SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF CYCLONE WATI HITTING NZ ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING


    The first forecast in the series below is "+ 72 Hours 18hrs 26 March UTC " which corresponds to 6am Monday March 27 NZT. Each image shows 2 milibar pressure gradients and forecast rain over a six hour period in coloured lines.

    6am Monday March 27 NZT

    12pm Monday March 27 NZT

    6pm Monday March 27 NZT

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    12am Tuesday March 27 NZT

    6am Tuesday March 27 NZT

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    12pm Tuesday March 27 NZT

    6pm Tuesday March 27 NZT

    **** ENDS ****

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