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Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – June 2nd 2006

Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition

Business and Political News
June 2nd 2006

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Rolling average poll

The Nats by a nose

The huge lead for National in this week’s One News-Colmar Brunton poll has flipped Don Brash’s party into a slender lead in the two party race in our exclusive rolling poll of polls. Even allowing for the historical bias towards the centre right in the poll, which the pollsters seem to be addressing, it clearly shows the effect of the attention given to the absence of tax cuts in the Budget.

As always we assume party leaders get off the dance floor long enough to hold their seats, and that the Maori Party MPs hold their current four seats. If that all comes to pass the numbers would be:

Percent Seats
National 42.45 53
Labour 41.80 53
Greens 5.66 7
NZ First 3.89 0
Maori 2.55 4
United Future 1.61 2
Act 1.23 2
Progressives 0.12 1

It is a 122 seat Parliament with one overhang seat each for Jim Anderton and the Maori Party. The necessary 62 seats for a majority are no longer there for Labour, the Greens and Jim Anderton (61 seats) but they do prevent a centre-right majority. That leaves United Future and the Maori Party on the fulcrum of power and in a position to bargain with Labour for a slice of the action (and be bargained off against each other).


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