Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – July 15 2006

Direct Link To This Week's Weekend Update Edition:
http://molesworthandfeatherston.info/pdf/MandF14Jul06L.pdf

Rolling average poll

It’s the Nats by a lengthening nose

Two new surveys in our rolling average poll show a huge divergence in support for the two major parties, with the net result a slight firming of support for National in our exclusive rolling poll of polls. The more public of the two – a 3 News TNS poll this week - brought forth some bilge purporting to be political reporting, as commentators lined up to predict trouble for National leader Don Brash based on seven point lead for Labour. The truth is:

1) The Roy Morgan poll – taken a little earlier over a longer period of time and therefore marginally less relevant ‘tis true – should have been taken into account if the commentary was to be treated as objective. It showed National in front by eight points. (TV3 might be absolved somewhat on the basis that organisations that pay for polls invariably treat their own as the only true gospel … in order to get best value from their outlay.)

2) Dr Brash is under threat and has been since he lost the election. It is a near certainty he will be rolled before 2008. But it is not likely one poll will do it, and at this stage the rolling poll does not scream "panic" at the Nats, although there is clearly some work to do.

Assuming party leaders hold their seats, and that the Maori Party MPs retain their current four seats, it is a 122 seat Parliament:

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Direct Link To This Week's Weekend Update Edition:
http://molesworthandfeatherston.info/pdf/MandF14Jul06L.pdf

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