Zogby - Top 3 Dems All Lost Ground to Thompson

Thursday, 29 November 2007, 10:52 am
Opinion: Michael Collins

John Zogby is one of the most accurate pollsters in the history of modern politics. However, his headline below hides the real meaning of his poll comparing the 'big three" Democratic contenders in match ups against their Republican counterparts. The results are from May 17, July 14, and Nov. 26, 2007.

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Zogby Poll: Obama, Edwards Strong but Clinton Slips Against GOPers

General election match-ups show the New York Senator would lose against every top Republican (11/26/2007)"

Hillary losing to all the Republicans is not the big news.

The big news is that in almost every match up, all three leading Democrats are down from their May 17 levels. They were polled against four Republicans candidates for a total of 12 match ups. In 10 of the 12, the Democrats lost ground from May to November. Edwards showed the only improvements and those were only by just 1% against the struggling McCain and Giuliani tarnished by his strange associates.

Tommy Thompson improved against all three Democrats from the May to the late November polls. But wait, didn't he drop out of the Republican race? Correct. The Aug. 12, 2007 drop out improved his net position significantly against the leading Democrats. Obama's net victory margin over Thompson dropped 10% from May to November and Edwards by 5%. Clinton's net margin against the former Wisconsin governor dropped 11% from May to November and she lost to Thompson in the latest poll! What's that about?

Many now choose a little known Republican primary dropout over the leading opposition candidates when that opposition fails to oppose much of anything.

Why are the leading Democratic contenders all losing ground since May? Could it be a public comment on the marginal effort of Democrats to get the United States out of Iraq? Or maybe the people are simply fed up with the tepid campaign? Blockbuster issues like accelerating climate change and health insurance are rarely discussed in a serious way. Without any doubt, most of the mainstream media seeks the lowest common denominator. It's as though they wish to divert attention from the many Bush – Cheney disasters. But the candidates control the agenda. They can choose the topics of focus and debate.

The public may be fed up with the poor performance of both parties. How else do you explain the Thompson phenomena? Rank and file Democrats aren't quite with gadfly Democratic candidate, former Senator Mike Gravel, when he said to Clinton and Obama: "Some of these people frighten me!" But they're "trending" in that direction.

Given the Bush – Cheney nosedive and the quality of the Republican candidates, the Democrats should be soaring. The fact that they're not may reflect an across the board weakness on key issues. Apparently quite a few people read this article from Associated Press, Sept. 26, 2007.

Hanover, N.H. - The leading Democratic White House hopefuls conceded Wednesday night that they cannot guarantee to pull all U.S. combat troops from Iraq by the end of the next presidential term in 2013.
"I think it's hard to project four years from now," said Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the opening moments of a campaign debate in the nation's first primary state.
"It is very difficult to know what we're going to be inheriting," added Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
"I cannot make that commitment," said former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

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