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Supercomputer Weather: Super Hurricane Gustav

Supercomputer Weather: Super Hurricane Gustav


Compiled by Alastair Thompson and David Mclellan

Super hurricane Gustav is just 40 hours short of making landfall on the South Coast of the United States and is currently forecast to make landfall over the Mississippi Delta and the city of New Orleans.

There remains some hope that the track the monster category 4 hurricane could move to the West where it will do much less damage. However with a direct hit on New Orleans also a possibility the city is currently being evacuated.

The images which follow are taken from the NASA Modis satellite. Click Here to view the latest NOAA supercomputer weather forecasts of the landfall of Gustav.


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The Eye Of Hurricane Gustav


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Hurrican Gustav over Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico


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High Resolution Image Of Hurricane Gustav - 3380 pixels by 2164 pixels

Useful links:
National Hurricane Warning Center
Weather Underground – Tropical
Google News – “Hurricane Gustav


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Weather Underground Plot of Computer Model Tracks For The Hurricane

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST - 6pm NZT Sunday 31 August


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Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 310308
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND...WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT...WITH 320/13 USED IN THIS PACKAGE. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...WITH GUSTAV BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THEN BY AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER LANDFALL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV...WITH A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST AT THAT TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z UKMET FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DESPITE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D... WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE NEXT 18 HR...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GUSTAV MOVES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE OCEAN SIDE...GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THEN POSSIBLY PASS OVER A COUPLE OF COLD EDDIES NORTH OF 26N. ALL GUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND LOWER HEAT CONTENT...THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND. DUE TO THE VARIOUS FACTORS...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 23.1N 83.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 87.4W 135 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 28.3N 89.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 120 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/0000Z 31.5N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane GUSTAV Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 310239
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...CORRECTED WARNING SECTION TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...CENTER OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTAV MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 530 MILES...850 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 51 MPH...81 KM/HR... WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

LATEST GFS SUPERCOMPUTER LANDFALL FORECAST FOR HURRICANE GUSTAV

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