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Roy Morgan Poll Oct 6 - 19: Nat 43% Lab 32%

National Party regain initiative up 2.5% to 43%

Greens at record-high vote up 2.5% to 11.5%

Finding No. 4330 - This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 743 electors from October 6-19, 2008.: October 24, 2008

In mid October 2008 with the “World Financial Crisis” worsening the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 43% (up 2.5%), a healthy lead over the Labour Party 32% (down 5.5%). If the Election were held this weekend the National Party would form Government with the help of a minor party.

Support for the Greens 11.5% (up 2.5%) is at its highest level since the last election, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 3.5% (unchanged), the Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), Progressive Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others and Independents 2% (up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (97.0 points, down 5.3 points) has dropped sharply, falling back below 100 after only a few weeks in ‘positive territory’. Only 23% of New Zealanders expect New Zealand as a whole to have good times economically over the next 12 months.

Gary Morgan says:

“With only two weeks until New Zealanders go to the polls to elect a new Government, the latest New Zealand Morgan Poll shows the Labour Party has lost ground, down 5.5% to 32%. The drift in their support to both the Opposition National Party (up 2.5% to 43%) and the Greens (up 2.5% to a record high 11.5%) has handed the initiative back to the National Party.

“National Party leader John Key’s biggest challenge against a strong and experienced incumbent like Helen Clark has always been convincing New Zealanders he has the leadership skills and toughness to lead New Zealand through a period of international financial and economic turmoil.

“John Key impressed in last week’s leaders debate against Prime Minister Helen Clark and Key’s ability to stand up to Clark and present the case for a National Party Government enhanced his standing in the electorate and helped establish Key as the new leader New Zealand needs to lead it out of the current recession.”

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 743 electors from October 6-19, 2008.

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