Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


A prediction - Mexico's July 5, 2009 Elections

A prediction - Mexico's July 5, 2009 Elections
Without any doubt, the winning party will be …


Michael Collins

The boycott of the election by registered voters will gain a clear plurality, around 48%, and possibly a majority, of registered voters.

The 2009 Mexican boycott includes those who deliberately nullified their ballots and those who simply chose not to vote. Early reports indicate that 8% are actively nullifying their vote (voto nulo) and that another 40% of registered voters are not showing up at all. That combined figure, 48% or so, will handily beat the vote totals for the ruling PAN Party and the former rulers, the PRI, without out any doubt. While totals will change, there is no way that PAN and PRI can overcome the anulistas and those who stayed away from the polls.

Abstentions in Mexican mid term elections for the 500 member Chamber of Deputies have grown from 32% in 1991 to 42% in 1997. In the most recent election for the Chamber in 2003 58% of citizens chose to avoid the polls (Mexidata). There is an argument, I suppose, that the formal boycott was the voto nulo movement, defacing ballots that would be counted as such. But that argument fails when we consider that there's a long term trend by those able to vote who simply boycott elections in Mexico and elsewhere.

Mexico's voters experienced what many believe to be a stolen election in 2006. That experience plus widespread disillusionment with the performance of government gave rise to the voto nulo movement.

The prediction that "boycott" would win could have been made at most any time prior to the election without much risk. But the press and politicians fail to even acknowledge this largest voting block, citizens who, by and large, see no purpose in voting. If they did, they would vote (except for those still barred by institutional barriers).

Los Anulistas


Vote nullification advocates celebrate their sure victory July 5, Election Day by SalamandraNegra

While the voto nulo movement is not responsible for those who stayed at home, it should speak in their behalf. Unless barred from voting or disenfranchised through election fraud, people who choose to stay home on Election Day are making a number of statements. The clearest statement is simply this -- the return on investment from voting is not there. There is no point in voting. It's a simple conclusion. No further studies are required on motivation, except in those cases were institutional barriers are created (e.g., voter suppression).

In a Zogby Poll* from Aug. 11 through Aug. 15, 2006 of 1068 registered voters in the United States, a subgroup was created for those who stayed home in the last election. The unpublished data from a larger survey showed that at least 47% of those responding indicated that there was either no point in voting based on candidate performance after the election (19%) or that the process was too inconvenient (27%). Adding the two together in a "no point in voting" group shows 47% of those not voting so because there's simply no point; it's not worth the effort.


Those boycotting U.S. presidential elections are the "permanent plurality."

Here are the boycott party victories since 2000. An easy winner in 2000 and 2004, the very low regard for the incumbent party plus then Democratic candidate Obama's campaign efforts turned 2008 into a horse race but boycott would not be denied. It won beat candidate Obama 37% to 33%, a solid victory. There are good reasons to think that boycott will return to its 40% to 45% range in 2012.

When voters think that there's no point in voting, that it is simply not worth the trouble, the system in power rules as a minority government, one without the authority of a majority or plurality of the people that approaches a majority.

It's time for boycott to get credit as the leading vote getter in every U.S. and most Mexican elections for at least the two decades.

What does that say about our leadership?

What does it say about the free flow of information in our societies that this potent political force is ignored?

One thing for sure, the rulers and the public institutions that prop them up simply can't deal the truth - boycott prevails over and over with no campaign apparatus or funds. But the point is clear, the meaningless of the voting process is reflected by those who abstain and do something else on Election Day.

It's time to give more attention to this group of citizens who prevail time and again.

END

* The referenced Zogby Poll of 2006 was sponsored by Paul Lehto with support from Nancy Tobi and the author. See here and here for the published results of the poll.

Previous analysis and comment on the 2009 Mexican election here and here.

This article may be reproduced in whole or part with attribution of authorship and a link to this article.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Binoy Kampmark: Texas, Abortion And The US Supreme Court

The subject before the US Supreme Court justices in the case of Whole Woman’s Health v Hellerstedt involved particular Texan regulations that were found to be an “undue burden” on a woman’s right to have an abortion. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Delusions Driving The “Leave” Option

Voting for “Leave” requires (a) a fantastically unbalanced view of the impact of immigration on modern Britain (b) a demonizing of the EU “regulations” that are commonplace within a modern economy and (c) a simple-minded optimism that Britain would not suffer any major damage to its economy, or to the status of the City of London. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The “T” Word, And This Sunday’s Election In Spain

Once again, the RNZ news packages from the US and UK this morning underlined the striking difference in the treatment of the Pulse night club killings in Florida and the murder of the British Labour MP, Jo Cox. More>>

Werewolf: Getting Roasted, Kiwi Style

Roasting coffee beans is an essential step in the process from plant to cup. New Zealand does not grow any coffee, so it therefore imports 100% of its coffee supply from other countries. New Zealand does however roast a lot of coffee beans. More>>

Alastair Thompson: Jo Cox's Killing Looms Large As Brexit Heads Down To Wire

The mourning period for the brutally slain pro-remain Labour MP and mother of two Jo Cox was always going to be brief. Today, Sunday 19th June, with four days to go till polling, the Brexit campaign resumed. More>>

ALSO:

Pledge Me Goal Met!
On Scoop's Current Journalism Project

Gordon Campbell: Before this crowd funding effort wraps up tonight, I thought I should provide an update on the mental health journalism project that Scoop – and its readers – are funding. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news