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Polls Apart

Two polls out from TV1 and TV3 paint a very different picture for National and Labour and one can't be right.

The TV1//Colmar Brunton poll gives National some comfort, showing them up two points this month to 41%, while Labour drops two to 42%.

The Alliance is down one to 6%, ACT is up one to 5%, and NZ First is down again to 2%.

The poll is so close that if it was election night, the centre/left would have a majority of one, but if any of the minor parties or any independents made it in an electorate, all bets could be off and we would be in a similar situation that followed the 1996 election, with someone in a position to make a king, or possibly, queen.

The poll will give heart to National ministers and their worried backbenchers, but Labour MPs will be pointing to the TV3 poll as closer to the truth.

The TV3/CM Research Poll shows a significant swing to Labour on 46% up 5 points since last poll. National is on 33% down 4 points. The Alliance on 7%. NZ First and ACT on 4%.

This would give the Labour/Alliance combination a healthy working majority if it was reflected in the election.

The TV3 poll shows another completely opposite result in the leadership stakes. TV1 had Mrs Shipley ahead, but TV3 has Helen Clark taking the lead.

Go figure.

The TV1 poll is on-line at:

http://tvone.co.nz/politics/opinionpolls/1999/onnpoll_21_6_99.html

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