Where will the likely cut-off be on the National Party list following the November election?

Scoop has categorised National MPs into a series of groups which give an indication of how the process works. The exercise involves first figuring out who is likely to be elected in the electorate vote. Names are then taken from the list to make up the difference.

This is inevitably a very imprecise exercise and Scoop would be interested in the views of any political experts out there who have a different view on who should be in each category. Scoop apologises in advance if it has left somebody out who stands a good chance of winning in their electorate.

THE STARTING 26

Current MPs not on list but likely/possibly will win:

Murray McCully
Clem Simich
Ian Revell
Warren Kyd
Tony Steele
Murray McLean (Coromandle - marginal)

Below the likely cut- off but likely to be elected in their seats:

Wayne Mapp (No 33)
Brian Neeson (No 34)
Shane Ardern (No 35)
Gerry Brownlee (No 36)

New candidates who are likely to/possibly will win.

Port Waikato: Dr Paul Hutchison (No. 38)
Wairarapa: Paul Henry (No 43)
Epsom: Richard Worth (No 44)
Karapiro: Lindsay Tisch (Not on the list)

MPs above the likely cut-off who are likely to win their seats:

1. Prime Minster Jenny Shipley
4. Bill English
5. Lockwood Smith
8. Nick Smith
(Marginal) 9. Tony Ryall
10. Belinda Vernon
13. Maurice Williamson
(Marginal) 15. Max Bradford
16. John Carter
21. David Carter
(Marginal) 22. Bob Simcock
24. Marie Hasler

(Note: In the event any of these do not win their seats it makes no difference to the cut-off line as they would be appointed off the list in any event.)

THE REST - LIKELY NATIONAL LIST MPS

Assuming National gets the same as it did last time - 33% of the vote and 44 seats - then the cut-off would according to Scoop's guesstimate occur at No 29 on the list. Scoop is assuming here that Don McKinnon will be appointed as Secretary General to the Commonwealth and that therefore he will not take up a place off the list.

2. Deputy Prime Minister Wyatt Creech
6. Georgina Te Heuheu
7. Roger Sowry
8. Nick Smith
11. Pansy Wong
12. Simon Upton
14. John Luxton
17. Doug Kidd
18. Annabel Young
19. Eric Roy
20. Anne Tolley
23. Katherine Rich
25. Arthur Anae
26. Alec Neill
27. Katherine O'regan
28. Mark Thomas
29. Phil Raffills

--- Scoop's guesstimate of where cut-off line will be with National on 33% of party vote ----

IN WITH A CHANCE

30. Kerry Prendergast
31. Martin Poulsen
32. Gavan Herlihy
37. Simon Power
39. David Steele
40. Dale Stephens
41. Angus Mckay
42. Phil Heatley
45. Chester Borrows

PROBABLY OUT OF THE RUNNING

46. Cni George Ngatai
47. N Enosa Auva'a
48. Cni Rea Wikaira
49. N Brett Bestic
50. C/W Rod O'beirne
51. S Wayne Marriot
52. W Stephen Rainbow

(Note: At this point National would have an outright majority in Parliament with 60 MPs)

53. Cni Tim Macindoe
54. N George Kahi
55. W Larry White
56. N Ken Yee
57. C/W Lynda Scott
58. Cni Matthew Parkinson
59. N Dawn Honeybun
60. W George Halligan
61. N Grant Mccallum
62. C/W Peggy Burrows
63. N Toni Millar
64. N Noeline Buckland
65. W Stuart Boag

© Scoop Media

Alastair Thompson

Scoop Publisher

Alastair Thompson is the co-founder of Scoop. He is of Scottish and Irish extraction and from Wellington, New Zealand. Alastair has 24 years experience in the media, at the Dominion, National Business Review, North & South magazine, Straight Furrow newspaper and online since 1997. He is the winner of several journalism awards for business and investigative work.

CONTACT ALASTAIR THOMPSON

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