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robson-on-politics, Thur 7 July

robson-on-politics, Thur 7 July

robson-on-politics, a newsletter from Matt Robson MP
Deputy Leader of the Progressive Party

Thur 7 July

Employment confidence very strong

Over the past six years we've experienced the most rapid expansion in full-time jobs in any six-year period in our nation's 165-year history. As you would expect from a government committed to making poverty history, our unemployment rate is the second lowest in the world and the good news yesterday is that the Westpac McDermott Employment Confidence Index shows employees continued to rate the job market as "extremely favourable" in the June Quarter.
Read the report:$FILE/Q2%20Employment%20Confidence%20Index.pdf

Looking for a repeat of 1943

The last time a centre-left government won three consecutive elections was 62 years ago. That the Clark-Anderton coalition is in with a 50/50 chance of victory this year is a remarkable achievement in itself. But with the polls pointing to a potential cliff hanger, financial market investors have started pricing-in a potential National-NZ First-United Future administration.

Treasury forecasts Labour-Progressive policies will see the government's cash position in deficit by $1.5 billion in the '06-'07 financial year and then $3 billion in '07-'08. An item dated April 4 on National's Website indicates National thinks increasing debt in order to pay for its election promises is a great idea. National, we are told, yearns nostalgically to a time when the NZ government "borrowed heavily in London!"

Financial markets will sell bonds on any Nat rise

Investors will therefore sell-down NZ government and Kiwi private sector bonds should National rise in the polls. That selling has already started on the off-chance of a National-NZ First-United Future coalition committed to raising government debt. As bond prices fall, the implied yields rise, which delivers higher mortgage rates to you at home. The selling also puts downward pressure on the Kiwi, which in turn provides the RBNZ with another reason to want rates higher to tamper inflation.

Too shy to say they are Right

A number of parties are carrying interesting policies into Election 2005. Here are some:

The Maori Party: The highlight of last year was that it supported the privatisation of the prison service and now it is saying it wants to reduce the central government's income tax revenue by "four or five billion dollars" a year for a number of years. The party says it is "neither Left nor Right".

United Future Outdoor: This party's income tax policy is very similar to the Maori Party's and its other main demand is that the next government sell 40% of strategic national assets like Kiwibank, NZ Post, Genesis Power, Mighty River Power, Air NZ and Meridian. The party says it is "neither Left nor Right."

NZ First: Went into the '96 election promising it was the only party that could "get rid of National" and then after the election joined National in a coalition that sold strategic assets like Auckland Airport for a song to foreigners. The party says it is "neither Left nor Right".

The Greens: Important issues to this party include its opposition to being too rough on the peddlers of ecstasy, speed and P, a willingness to put the fear of god into parents about the meningococcal B vaccine, a demand for national vaccination against bird flu. It adopts a no surprises agreement with the government and works cooperatively with us on a number of issues. See:

China aims to be developed by 2080

Thanks for those that have contacted me about China's spectacular export-led growth over the past 20 years and how that has lifted millions off the starvation borderline. China aims to become a developed country by 2080, but for now its people's standard of living is ranked 69th in the world, with a per-capita GDP level at a similar level to the U.S. in 1892. See the Bejing Review article:


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