Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | Video | Questions Of the Day | Search

 


Treasury publishes six new Working Papers

The Treasury published six new Working Papers today, covering analysis of trade barriers, KiwiSaver data, sectoral-level capital investments, unemployment rates, superannuation and labour market dynamics.

Recent Unemployment Experience in New Zealand (WP 14-01) was written by Jeff Borland. The rate of unemployment in New Zealand increased by about 3.5 percentage points between late 2007 and late 2009, and then remained relatively steady to early 2013. This paper argues that changes to the rate of New Zealand unemployment can be explained entirely by economic growth outcomes, and do not seem to reflect any structural change in the labour market. This suggests that there are not any impediments to the rate of unemployment falling back to levels that existed in the mid-2000s.

To Save or Save Not: Intergenerational Neutrality and the Expansion of New Zealand Superannuation (WP 14-02) was written by Andrew Coleman. This paper analyses the consequences of expanding New Zealand Superannuation on a save-as-you-go basis through the New Zealand Superannuation Fund rather than on a pay-as-you-go basis. These funding mechanisms differ in terms of their effects on different cohorts, long run tax rates, capital accumulation, and risk. The paper argues that an automatic pay-as-you-go funded expansion of New Zealand Superannuation is unattractive on many grounds, even if pay-as-you-go funding remains for much of the programme. It concludes that in addition to reducing long run tax rates, the use of save-as-you-go funding through the New Zealand Superannuation Fund provides households with a means of reducing income risk over the course of their lives.

New Zealand Labour Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis (WP 14-03) was written by Weshah Razzak. This paper analyses historically recent increases in the unemployment rate; examines whether these increases are cyclical versus structural; and estimates the speed of adjustment of the unemployment rate to its “natural rate” (NRU). It notes that major increases in unemployment occurred after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis, with similar labour market dynamics.

An Empirical Study of Sectoral-Level Capital Investments in New Zealand (WP 14-04) was written by Weshah Razzak. This paper uses an empirical model to estimate the responsiveness of growth in sectoral-level investment. The main findings of this study are sectoral-level investment growth responds significantly and contemporaneously to sector-specific and country-specific productivity shocks, but only responds significantly to past global productivity shocks with a two-year lag. Sectoral-level investment growth responds positively to shocks in the terms of trade, although the reactions vary from one sector to another, and with different lags. Investment growth at the sectoral-level is also driven by past investment level reflecting adjustment costs, and expectations. The findings are consistent with the view that New Zealand’s capital investments shallowness is associated with relatively low productivity.

A Gravity Model of Barriers to Trade in New Zealand (WP 14-05) was written by Murat Genç and David Law. This paper provides a brief discussion of the state-of-the-art methods used to measure trade costs and to quantify their impact on international trade. It then investigates the role of a range of barriers to New Zealand’s trade, including tariffs and a number of non-trade policy factors such as property rights, financial market sophistication, corruption, and a range of measures related to infrastructure quality. The findings highlight the growing importance of non-policy induced barriers to trade.

KiwiSaver: Comparing Survey and Administrative Data (WP 14-06) was written by Anton Samoilenko and David Law. This paper examines the KiwiSaver information contained in administrative data from the Inland Revenue Department and the Survey of Family, Income and Employment. In particular, it explores the membership and contribution information, explaining significant patterns and highlighting any differences that exist between the two data sources. At the aggregate level, the paper shows noticeable difference in membership levels, tenure, annual employer and employee contributions and total cumulative contributions. At the individual level, regression results identify the main determinants of the observed differences and quantify their impact.

The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in Treasury Working Papers are strictly those of the authors and do necessarily reflect the views of the Treasury.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Anzac Issue Out Now: Werewolf 47

Alison McCulloch: Lest We Remember

Local iwi have plans to spruce up the Te Ranga site as part of the 150th commemorations this year of key battles in the “New Zealand Wars”, but not a lot of money to do it with.

Information gathered from numerous government agencies shows that while more than $25 million is being spent on monuments and commemorations relating to foreign wars, primarily World War I and its centenary, only around $250,000 has been set aside for those fought on our own soil. More>>

Anne Russell: Anzac Day - Identity Politics, With Guns

Even cursory research into media reports from the past forty years reveals a cultural shift in the commemoration of Anzac Day. Among other things, turnout at Dawn services has increased significantly in recent decades.

Contemporary numbers are estimated at 3,000-4,000 in Wellington, and 10,000-15,000 in Auckland. Newspaper reports from the 1970s and 80s estimated Wellington turnouts at 300-800, and Auckland at anywhere from 600 to 4,000. More>>

 
 

Parliament Today:

Spookwatch: New Inspector-General Of Intelligence And Security Appointed

Prime Minister John Key hasannounced the appointment of Cheryl Gwyn as Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security. The appointment was made by the Administrator of the Government on behalf of the Governor General and is for a term of three years. More>>

Crowdsourcing: Green Party Launches Internet Rights And Freedoms Bill

The Green Party has today launched the Internet Rights and Freedoms Bill, New Zealand’s first ever Bill crowdsourced by a political party. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Shane Jones Departure

Shane Jones has left Parliament in the manner to which we have become accustomed, with self interest coming in first and second, and with the interests of the Labour Party (under whose banner he served) way, way back down the track. More>>

COMMENT:

Multimedia: PM Post-Cabinet Press Conference - April 22 2014

The Prime Minister met with reporters to discuss: • The recent improvement in the economy with a growing job market • Income and wealth inequality • Easter trading laws • The New Zealander killed in a drone strike in Yemen... More>>

ALSO:

Easter Trading: Workers 'Can Kiss Goodbye To Easter Sunday Off'

The Government’s decision to “reprioritise” scarce labour inspector resources by abandoning the enforcement of Easter Sunday Shop Trading laws means workers can kiss goodbye to a guaranteed day off, says Labour’s Associate Labour Issues spokesperson Darien Fenton. More>>

ALSO:

ACT Don't Go For Maximum Penalty: Three Strikes For Burglary, Three Years Jail

Three strikes for burglary was introduced to England and Wales in 1999. As in New Zealand, burglary was out of control and given a low priority by the police and the courts. A Labour government passed a three strikes law whereby a third conviction for burglaries earned a mandatory three years in prison... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Drone Strikes And Judith Collins‘ Last Stand

The news that a New Zealand citizen was killed last November in a US drone attack in Yemen brings the drones controversy closer to home. More>>

ALSO:

Elections: New Electorate Boundaries Finalised

New boundaries for the country’s 64 General and seven Māori electorates have been finalised – with an additional electorate created in Auckland. More>>

ALSO:

Policies: Labour’s Economic Upgrade For Manufacturing

Labour Leader David Cunliffe has today announced his Economic Upgrade for the manufacturing sector – a plan that will create better jobs and higher wages. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Life And ACC Work Of Sir Owen Woodhouse

With the death of Sir Owen Woodhouse, the founding father of the Accident Compensation Scheme, New Zealand has lost one of the titans of its post-war social policy. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
Parliament
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news