Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | Video | Questions Of the Day | Search

 


Treasury publishes six new Working Papers

The Treasury published six new Working Papers today, covering analysis of trade barriers, KiwiSaver data, sectoral-level capital investments, unemployment rates, superannuation and labour market dynamics.

Recent Unemployment Experience in New Zealand (WP 14-01) was written by Jeff Borland. The rate of unemployment in New Zealand increased by about 3.5 percentage points between late 2007 and late 2009, and then remained relatively steady to early 2013. This paper argues that changes to the rate of New Zealand unemployment can be explained entirely by economic growth outcomes, and do not seem to reflect any structural change in the labour market. This suggests that there are not any impediments to the rate of unemployment falling back to levels that existed in the mid-2000s.

To Save or Save Not: Intergenerational Neutrality and the Expansion of New Zealand Superannuation (WP 14-02) was written by Andrew Coleman. This paper analyses the consequences of expanding New Zealand Superannuation on a save-as-you-go basis through the New Zealand Superannuation Fund rather than on a pay-as-you-go basis. These funding mechanisms differ in terms of their effects on different cohorts, long run tax rates, capital accumulation, and risk. The paper argues that an automatic pay-as-you-go funded expansion of New Zealand Superannuation is unattractive on many grounds, even if pay-as-you-go funding remains for much of the programme. It concludes that in addition to reducing long run tax rates, the use of save-as-you-go funding through the New Zealand Superannuation Fund provides households with a means of reducing income risk over the course of their lives.

New Zealand Labour Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis (WP 14-03) was written by Weshah Razzak. This paper analyses historically recent increases in the unemployment rate; examines whether these increases are cyclical versus structural; and estimates the speed of adjustment of the unemployment rate to its “natural rate” (NRU). It notes that major increases in unemployment occurred after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis, with similar labour market dynamics.

An Empirical Study of Sectoral-Level Capital Investments in New Zealand (WP 14-04) was written by Weshah Razzak. This paper uses an empirical model to estimate the responsiveness of growth in sectoral-level investment. The main findings of this study are sectoral-level investment growth responds significantly and contemporaneously to sector-specific and country-specific productivity shocks, but only responds significantly to past global productivity shocks with a two-year lag. Sectoral-level investment growth responds positively to shocks in the terms of trade, although the reactions vary from one sector to another, and with different lags. Investment growth at the sectoral-level is also driven by past investment level reflecting adjustment costs, and expectations. The findings are consistent with the view that New Zealand’s capital investments shallowness is associated with relatively low productivity.

A Gravity Model of Barriers to Trade in New Zealand (WP 14-05) was written by Murat Genç and David Law. This paper provides a brief discussion of the state-of-the-art methods used to measure trade costs and to quantify their impact on international trade. It then investigates the role of a range of barriers to New Zealand’s trade, including tariffs and a number of non-trade policy factors such as property rights, financial market sophistication, corruption, and a range of measures related to infrastructure quality. The findings highlight the growing importance of non-policy induced barriers to trade.

KiwiSaver: Comparing Survey and Administrative Data (WP 14-06) was written by Anton Samoilenko and David Law. This paper examines the KiwiSaver information contained in administrative data from the Inland Revenue Department and the Survey of Family, Income and Employment. In particular, it explores the membership and contribution information, explaining significant patterns and highlighting any differences that exist between the two data sources. At the aggregate level, the paper shows noticeable difference in membership levels, tenure, annual employer and employee contributions and total cumulative contributions. At the individual level, regression results identify the main determinants of the observed differences and quantify their impact.

The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in Treasury Working Papers are strictly those of the authors and do necessarily reflect the views of the Treasury.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Hager Revelations: Inquiry Into NZSIS Release Of Goff Docs

The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS), Cheryl Gwyn, announced today that she would be instituting an inquiry concerning allegations that the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS) might have released official information to Mr Cameron Slater, regarding briefings provided to the then Leader of the Opposition, for political purposes...

“I am satisfied there is a sufficient public interest justifying the commencement of an own-motion inquiry into the substance of the issues raised with my Office,” said Ms Gwyn. More>>

 

Parliament Today:

Fish Pun Warning: By Hoki! It’s Labour’s Fisheries Policy

A Labour Government will protect the iconic Kiwi tradition of fishing by improving access to the coast, protecting the rights of recreational fishers and reviewing snapper restrictions, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. More>>

ALSO:

It's Official: Governor General Gives Direction To Conduct Election

The Governor General has signed the writ directing the Electoral Commission to conduct the General Election on 20 September 2014. This is the formal authority to run the 2014 election, and enables candidate nominations to open tomorrow Thursday 21 August 2014. More>>

Gordon Campbell: No More Mr Nice Guy

When future historians seek to identify the exact moment when the prime ministerial career of John Key hit the downward slope, they may well point to Key’s interview yesterday with Guyon Espiner on RNZ’s Morning Report. More>>

ALSO:

Dirty (Politics) Weekend: Collins’ Admission Reason For Key To Act

"Despite claiming that the evidence about her in Nicky Hager's book was ‘false’ Judith Collins has now been forced to admit that she did send information about a Ministerial Services staff member to Cameron Slater for him to use in a baseless smear campaign. More>>

ALSO:

Potential Disasters: Underground Coal Fire On Denniston Plateau

Forest & Bird says one or more coal fires have broken out beneath the Denniston Plateau, and that the Department of Conservation (DOC) must stop Bathurst Resources’ preparatory mining work going on there until the fire or fires are extinguished. More>>

ALSO:

Bikes: Nats Plan $100 Million For Urban Cycleways

Prime Minister John Key has today announced $100 million in new funding will be made available over the next four years to accelerate cycleways in urban centres. More>>

ALSO:

New Tax Bracket, Child Poverty Fund: Greens Launch Billion Dollar Plan To Reduce Child Poverty

The Green Party has launched a billion dollar package to significantly reduce child poverty in New Zealand. The details of the plan were released at the party’s campaign launch in Auckland. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Parliament
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news