Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | Video | Questions Of the Day | Search

 


Treasury publishes six new Working Papers

The Treasury published six new Working Papers today, covering analysis of trade barriers, KiwiSaver data, sectoral-level capital investments, unemployment rates, superannuation and labour market dynamics.

Recent Unemployment Experience in New Zealand (WP 14-01) was written by Jeff Borland. The rate of unemployment in New Zealand increased by about 3.5 percentage points between late 2007 and late 2009, and then remained relatively steady to early 2013. This paper argues that changes to the rate of New Zealand unemployment can be explained entirely by economic growth outcomes, and do not seem to reflect any structural change in the labour market. This suggests that there are not any impediments to the rate of unemployment falling back to levels that existed in the mid-2000s.

To Save or Save Not: Intergenerational Neutrality and the Expansion of New Zealand Superannuation (WP 14-02) was written by Andrew Coleman. This paper analyses the consequences of expanding New Zealand Superannuation on a save-as-you-go basis through the New Zealand Superannuation Fund rather than on a pay-as-you-go basis. These funding mechanisms differ in terms of their effects on different cohorts, long run tax rates, capital accumulation, and risk. The paper argues that an automatic pay-as-you-go funded expansion of New Zealand Superannuation is unattractive on many grounds, even if pay-as-you-go funding remains for much of the programme. It concludes that in addition to reducing long run tax rates, the use of save-as-you-go funding through the New Zealand Superannuation Fund provides households with a means of reducing income risk over the course of their lives.

New Zealand Labour Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis (WP 14-03) was written by Weshah Razzak. This paper analyses historically recent increases in the unemployment rate; examines whether these increases are cyclical versus structural; and estimates the speed of adjustment of the unemployment rate to its “natural rate” (NRU). It notes that major increases in unemployment occurred after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis, with similar labour market dynamics.

An Empirical Study of Sectoral-Level Capital Investments in New Zealand (WP 14-04) was written by Weshah Razzak. This paper uses an empirical model to estimate the responsiveness of growth in sectoral-level investment. The main findings of this study are sectoral-level investment growth responds significantly and contemporaneously to sector-specific and country-specific productivity shocks, but only responds significantly to past global productivity shocks with a two-year lag. Sectoral-level investment growth responds positively to shocks in the terms of trade, although the reactions vary from one sector to another, and with different lags. Investment growth at the sectoral-level is also driven by past investment level reflecting adjustment costs, and expectations. The findings are consistent with the view that New Zealand’s capital investments shallowness is associated with relatively low productivity.

A Gravity Model of Barriers to Trade in New Zealand (WP 14-05) was written by Murat Genç and David Law. This paper provides a brief discussion of the state-of-the-art methods used to measure trade costs and to quantify their impact on international trade. It then investigates the role of a range of barriers to New Zealand’s trade, including tariffs and a number of non-trade policy factors such as property rights, financial market sophistication, corruption, and a range of measures related to infrastructure quality. The findings highlight the growing importance of non-policy induced barriers to trade.

KiwiSaver: Comparing Survey and Administrative Data (WP 14-06) was written by Anton Samoilenko and David Law. This paper examines the KiwiSaver information contained in administrative data from the Inland Revenue Department and the Survey of Family, Income and Employment. In particular, it explores the membership and contribution information, explaining significant patterns and highlighting any differences that exist between the two data sources. At the aggregate level, the paper shows noticeable difference in membership levels, tenure, annual employer and employee contributions and total cumulative contributions. At the individual level, regression results identify the main determinants of the observed differences and quantify their impact.

The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in Treasury Working Papers are strictly those of the authors and do necessarily reflect the views of the Treasury.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

TV3 Videos: Key's Flip-Flop Over Whale Oil Texts | Slater
Reaction: Greens | More
Dim-Post Link: The Very Odd Slightly Left Of Centre

Gordon Campbell: On Government Arrogance

Right now, National is ramming anti-terrorism measures through Parliament. This legislation will grant the SIS the power to carry out 48 hour bouts of surveillance on anyone without a warrant, and will bestow on government the power to unilaterally revoke anyone’s passports and thus deny them the freedom to travel.

Ludicrously, the public has been given exactly one day to make submissions on these major infringements of their civil liberties. Despite Finlayson’s misleading signals on RNZ that these are only stopgaps until next year’s full review of our security laws, the measures in question will not, in fact, expire until 2018.

Why the insane rush? Good question. More>>

 
 

Parliament Today:

Key Texts With Whale Oil Released: PM Can’t Be Trusted Over Dirty Politics Defence - Greens

John Key’s answers to questions about dirty politics can’t be trusted, after he was forced to admit that he had misled journalists and Parliament about contact with attack blogger Cameron Slater, said the Green Party today.. More>>

ALSO:

Temporary Release Crackdown Continues: Corrections Review Of Phillip Smith Case

“The review by Corrections’ Chief Custodial Officer reveals that the plan for Smith’s series of temporary releases was overly ambitious and misinformed. He’s a highly manipulative and deceptive person who although technically eligible, should not have been considered for temporary release." More>>

ALSO:

White Ribbon Day: Govt Resumes Sexual Violence Trial Proceedings Work

Justice Minister Amy Adams has asked the Law Commission to resume work on proposals for better supporting victims of sexual violence through the criminal process. The Law Commission will revisit its previous work on alternative pre-trial and trial processes to identify options for improving complainants’ experience in court. More>>

ALSO:

"New Faces, Wise Heads": Andrew Little Announces New Labour Line Up

Labour Leader Andrew Little today announced a bold new caucus line up which brings forward new talent and draws on the party’s depth of experience. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Rick Ellis As Te Papa’s New CEO

The recent appointment of former TVNZ boss Rick Ellis to head Te Papa has copped a fair bit of criticism. Much of it has been inspired by the suspicion that Ellis has been hired to pursue the same purely commercial goals as he did at TVNZ, while similarly neglecting the serious cultural side of his mandate. More>>

Passport Cancellation, Surveillance: Draft 'Foreign Fighters Legislation' Released

The final draft of the Countering Terrorist Fighters Legislation Bill contains proposals previously announced by Mr Key in a major national security speech earlier this month. More>>

ALSO:

Related

Joint Statement: Establishment Of NZ-China Strategic Partnership

At the invitation of Governor-General Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae and Prime Minister The Rt Hon John Key of New Zealand, President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China made a state visit to New Zealand from 19 to 21 November 2014... More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Parliament
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news