Free Press - ACT’s new regular bulletin - 9/3/15
Free Press
ACT’s new regular
bulletin
The Jetsons are
Coming
We predict that technology will blur the
line between public and private transport. This week Uber
have launched Uber Pool in East Los Angeles. Up to four
people going to similar places at similar times can share an
Uber car by tapping their destination on their smart phone.
Is this a taxi service or a bus? Google is also working on
driverless car projects that would do the same thing, only
without an Uber-like driver. Projects such as the City Rail
Loop that have a long payoff but are unable to adapt to
change are becoming harder and harder to
justify.
The Renter Generation
Bernard
Hickey wrote an interesting piece in this weekend’s Herald
on Sunday. In it he identifies housing, tertiary education,
and fiscal costs as issues that younger New Zealanders
should be looking to have addressed politically, and even
named ACT Leader David Seymour as someone who could address
these issues. David shares many of Hickey’s concerns –
see this speech from ACT’s conference way
back in 2010. We agree with the general thrust of
Hickey’s argument, but note that younger generations
don’t want to be the cooped up generation, stuck in small,
high-density apartments, and note that access to tertiary
education is substantially higher than 30 years ago (and if
it is free, then you will be paying for it with higher taxes
on graduation).
Credit Where Credit’s
Due
On Sunday Leader of the Opposition Andrew
Little said New Zealanders are paying too much in ACC
levies. Good on him – he’s right. But having played
politics with ACC over their past three terms in government,
Labour shouldn’t be surprised that National is doing a
little (very little actually) of the same. ACC is a
government agency – of course it’s a political football.
Politicians will set the levies for political reasons. The
solution is for ACC to be forced to compete with other
insurers, meaning prices will adjust according to market
conditions, rather than according to the whims of
revenue-hungry Ministers.
How the Northland
By-election Could End in Court
There has never
before been a situation where a list MP has won a
by-election, and thus become a constituency MP. The
Electoral Act is not clear on what happens in this
situation. The courts may have to interpret electoral law
in an unprecedented situation. We could expect a legal
challenge. Ironically, if Rt Hon. Winston Peters did win in
Northland, the Māori Party and United Future are likely to
have a substantial increase in political leverage. Who
knows what is going through the minds of voters, but our
guess is that most who might be considering voting for
Peters are not intending to increase the power of the Māori
Party. To understand this, we need to consider some
possible outcomes.
Scenario 1: National Wins (Nat
60 ACT 1 =61/121)
National winning is still the
most likely scenario. It is predicted at 55 per cent by
iPredict. Betting markets draw on deeper insights than polls
taken before the National candidate was known. National is
mobilising formidable resources for the by-election, but the
voters have to like the candidate.
Scenario 2: ACT
Wins (Nat 59 ACT 2 =61/121)
National’s
candidate is not exactly a young John F Kennedy. We hope we
are wrong and that the candidate’s steady improvement
throughout the debate on TV3’s The Nation is
indicative. Perhaps the Prime Minister will have to endorse
Robin Grieve, an experienced campaigner, as the only
candidate who can save the right. Stranger things have
happened.
Scenario 3: Labour Wins (Nat 59 ACT 1 UF
1 Mao 2 =63/121)
Willow-Jean Prime is competent
and knows how to deliver a political message. Very long
odds, but David Seymour, who went to primary school in
Whangarei, would love to hear that Northland accent in
parliament, Mishta Schpeaker. This scenario means National
require either the Maori Party, or both United Future and
ACT, to pass legislation – a big win for the Maori Party
and UF.
Scenario 4: Peters resigns before election
day and wins (Nat 59 ACT 1 UF 1 Mao 2
=63/121)
Under this scenario the Speaker must
declare a vacancy and whomever is next on the NZ First list
gets the strangest 2½ years of their life. Peters’
return to parliament depends entirely on Northland. Again
National will need the Maori Party, or both UF and ACT to
pass legislation. The Prime Minister might eventually have
to consider a snap election, as sensible policy change is
blocked. This is the best outcome by far for the
opposition, and gives Peters a dilemma: If he thinks he’s
going to win, he should resign now to maximise the gains.
If not, he should withdraw and give Prime a clear run for
the same outcome.
Scenario 5: Peters resigns
before election day and loses (Nat 60 ACT 1
=61/121)
Peters is out of parliament, replaced
by whoever is next on the list. The NZ First caucus star in
a reality TV series, Game of Crones. National can get on
with policy reform, with ACT support.
Scenario 6:
Peters wins on election night and resigns before return of
the writ
This scenario is more interesting.
Peters could resign after the election result is clear, but
before the return of the writ, forcing the speaker to
declare a vacancy. Not doing so would be a big call for the
speaker. At this point he would not be legally elected for
Northland and his resignation would be only as a list MP.
How would the electoral commission respond? There are two
sub scenarios:
Scenario 6a: (Nat 59 ACT 1, UF 1,
Mao 2 =63/121)
The Commission mechanically
replaces Peters with the next NZF list MP, then appoints
Peters the MP for Northland upon the return of the writ.
The outcome would be the same as scenario 4. This would
change the proportionality of Parliament, which is supposed
to be set by the party vote at the general election, but the
Electoral Act says nothing about the proportionality needing
to be maintained in such situations, and there are good
reasons for this on a practical basis (especially for
Parties that had less than 5% at the previous election). In
this scenario retiring list MPs are replaced off their party
list.
Scenario 6b: (Nat 59 ACT 1 UF 1
=61/120)
But the Commission might decide to hold
over the appointment of a new NZF MP until return of the
writ, when one is entering anyway. The size of the NZF
caucus does not change. Thus Parliament would have 120
members. This scenario would likely also end up in court
(remember how Peters won Hunua). Now National would need
the support of ACT and UF, or just the Maori Party, to
govern. That would be the end of substantive RMA
reform.
Scenario 7: Peters loses and resigns after
return of the writ
Peters is out of parliament
and replaced by another list MP. Game of Crones without a
leader – comedy central. Highly unlikely but who knows,
maybe a loss in the by-election will put Peters off
politics?
The Take Out
A Peters
victory in Northland could lead to a court case, and will
empower the Maori Party and, to a lesser extent, Peter
Dunne.
ENDS