New Zealand First Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters

Speech to POLS 111, Victoria University

1pm, Tuesday 19th May 2015

A Major Shift in New Zealand’s Political Landscape

Most of you are in your first year of political science studies at a time when there has been a seismic shift in the New Zealand political landscape as a result of the Northland by-election.

Of course if you are a believer in the polls which have emerged post the Northland by-election then you might have a different view.

So let’s look at what happened in the recent Northland by-election, first the election commentary, then why we stood, the obstacles and the outcome of National’s train wreck.

Commentary

There has been a lot of commentary since March 28, by-election day, and of course hindsight is a wonderful thing. When one compares what was said on the 27th February when we nominated against comment within two weeks of the campaign getting under way then it’s clear that there was seismic shift in the media’s appreciation of what was going on in Northland.

In barely a month commentators forgot their predictions and claimed to have known from day one that we’d win. Post-election comment has it that National had no chance. They had the wrong candidate. And everybody was ganging up against National.

The truth is that early on most commentators were disparaging of our chances.

Generally they said we’d have to jump a hurdle of Olympian proportions. They said victory was unlikely. They said we were doing it for a stunt.

If we’d agreed with any of that we would not have stood.

At the politicians level much of what was said was plain rude and ignorant.

Prime Minister John Key dismissively said first, we would not stand, and second had “zero” chance if we did.

His remark showed a combination of smugness and arrogance plus a huge dysfunctionality when their massive funding advantage could not be used on the ground in one election.

Mr Key had his photograph on 500 hoardings around the electorate, more than four times New Zealand First’s number.

Had National not been so smug their think tank would have dug deeper and understood the condition of Northland and in fact much of provincial New Zealand now.

If they had done that they would never have taken New Zealand First so lightly.

But the seeds of National’s defeat were in the way they had for so long neglected this electorate. Our approach was to share that sentiment with the people of Northland wherever we went.

Let’s take a look at what National neglected to do

As POLS students you’ll know how critical research and preparation is. If you add those two things to theories, your thinking and some finesse you’ll start scoring A’s for your essays.

National in Northland barely managed an E.

They were caught napping, lulled into a sense of false security by their arrogance and a heavy dose of incompetence.

First, they ignored previous disasters. In the 1970 Marlborough by-election Labour scored the biggest swing against a government in 35 years in a seat that had been held by National for 24 years. If that could happen once it could happen again.

Second, National read too much into their 2014 General Election results which gave them a 9000-vote lead. They knew that we started 18,269 votes behind.

Third, National ignored parochialism: we are a parochial country, whether we are in Taranaki, Gisborne, Hokitika, Masterton, or Timaru. People live in these places because they love where they live. So it matters if we feel hard done by compared with other areas and other places.

Fourth, National didn’t give a toss. Three of their original 11 nominees were not even interviewed for the candidacy. National believed it was bullet proof.

Fifth, they were not concerned for Northland and its people. And despite having left the cupboard bare for years they saw no reason to run under the slogan “Working for Northland”, which begged the response in countless areas, to quote the Tui ad “yeah right”.

Sixth, National assumed its voters were predominately European, farmers and retirees, who would stick with tradition and could be relied on to turn out at the polls, even in a by-election, which generally has a much lower turnout. Maori, they decided, were mostly on the Maori roll. They were wrong on all those assumptions.

Seventh, they were so smug in their position that they completely underrated the potential for a real opponent to emerge.

Eighth, they did not expect a wake-up call and underestimated the public chatter about reason why the former MP was departing.

Ninth, they clearly did not listen to the people of Northland, nor did they read the facts. That is, they had their head in the sand.

Tenth, they ignored the fact that anger and frustration is born of neglect and discontent. People will lie down and take it for only so long. When opportunity knocks they will seize it. They failed to realise the by-election was a real chance for Northlanders to express their disquiet – a chance for change.

While National took a by-election holiday New Zealand First had a decision to make

The by-election had been called after the resignation of a sitting MP, National’s Mike Sabin. He stood down in circumstances that have yet to be explained.

We did not take the decision to stand lightly. Nothing would have changed for New Zealand First’s representation if we had not put up a candidate.

However, there was ‘noise’ in Northland, and it made its way to our door. We received countless emails and phone calls from people right across the political spectrum begging us to stand. In short we had an informal poll of real people on the ground, many of whom were National and Labour, even Greens, saying please give it a go.

Northlanders knew that the by-election could be a game changer for Northland. We shared that view and expanded on it being a game changer for the regions.

We were under no illusion this would be an enormously difficult task. No campaign is easy. And we had less than four weeks.

There were many reasons not to stand

We were a staggering 18,269 votes behind. National had the second highest majority ever defended in a by-election.

It was also a case of David taking on Goliath.

New Zealand First does not have the huge financial resources. National has permanent pollsters. It has armies of volunteers to work the phone line to persuade the voters.

Democracy is not always fair

We were up against the government with all the taxpayer resources. There is nothing fair for the underdog in an electoral battle where the government holds the seat.

A government has massive advantage – guaranteed media coverage for the Prime Minister and frequently for Ministers.

A sea of government resources at their fingertips. This included Crown limos motoring Ministers around Northland.

A government can pull policies out of the hat. They did. Ten two-lane bridges, faster broadband, better cell phone coverage, a Holiday Highway from Puhoi to Wellsford.

The government can play the Prime Ministerial card. It’s persuasive. We see the PM representing us as a nation on Anzac day, during royal tours, meeting heads of state, during big sporting events. The PM is frequently portrayed in a reverential and patriotic way. There’s a favourable imprint on us, and it can dominate in the polling booth.

The PM, with the media at his beck and call, can make sure his scare tactics are widely disseminated.

In Northland there were plenty: a win for Winston Peters will destabilise the government; Winston’s not a local; a win will put the Korea Free Trade deal in doubt; Winston’s promises are nothing, he’s not in government; he opposes the RMA reforms; funny that, at the time when National was saying that they had never shown those reforms to us.

Rolling out the Ministers is another trick instead of their new candidate. Campaign manager and Minister Steven Joyce was constantly in the media. The candidate, Mark Osborne, was in fact rudely shoved into the background.

But none of this worked in the end

The limos caused anger.

Vote buying became a joke, so much so that the PM had a hissy fit and said he wasn’t giving anymore.

The scare tactics – fruitless. The truth won. Our win would not change the government. We would support the Korean FTA.

Few knew who the National candidate was, or what he stood for. He could not compete with a big blue bus on the road every day, and a well-known local candidate in touch with the people.

National’s Ministers and MPs heckled at public meetings. Hardly status forming. Even when they rolled into the stock yards the welcome was lukewarm in farmers’ territory.

National had no match for our journey all over the north. As our Force for the North bus rolled along bumpy and unsealed roads, we took the people of the north with us via Facebook. The media came along via twitter.

Where was National when the locals held a fundraiser for Rawene hospital up the road from Kohukohu. We arrived at the Donnellys Crossing sports picnic, National was a no show.

Even the PM’s visits didn’t magically turn the nightmare around for National. There were no queues for selfies in Northland.

At Mangawhai the PM only dared show his face when the crowd that had been waiting for us dispersed after our speech. But TV One, the state broadcaster, chose to tell a very different story, saying NZ First scuttled away.

To this day we do not know what National’s message was to the people of Northland.

Despite an overwhelming number of billboards, they could not match our simple call: “Send them a Message”.

The slippery slide for National began when Northlanders saw the seriousness of our campaign. They voted in droves.

The message from New Zealand First was simple

We told Northlanders they had been treated like Cinderella for far too long and now was the time to pick up the glass slipper. They did.

Who knows if any of them saw me as the Handsome Prince, but they knew their vote was as good as a glass slipper.

While many Labour votes went to New Zealand First, many more National voters also turned. They realised if they turned down this chance they were economically and socially doomed. National would never deliver.

It was the second highest turnout for a by-election in New Zealand at 65.4% of the 45,955 enrolled.

For New Zealand First it was a chance to win a provincial seat.

We wanted to shine the spotlight on the regions, and we have.

Now the regions know they are speaking out. They want their share of the national wealth.

They understand what Northlanders knew. They have been neglected.

The regions produce the bulk of the exports, yet get little in reward.

It’s time for a change. National is now licking its Northland wounds.

The psychological blow to the government has been huge.

The PM has been accident prone ever since.

National did not listen to Northland. Perhaps they are listening now. The regions certainly are.

ENDS

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