Free Press, November 23 2015

ACT’s regular bulletin

A Sunk Cost

The first of two flag referenda has begun. Since the money’s been spent you might as well vote. One thing’s certain, if this one fails no sane Prime Minister will give you the chance again for a very long time.

A Better Referendum Idea
ACT has argued all year that a better referendum would be one on Superannuation. John Key insists there is no problem with the increasing costs and Andrew Little is too scared to campaign on the issue. ACT now stands alone. We say a better idea would have been to appoint an expert panel to pitch up some ideas on Super (the age, the amount, flexi-super, for example) and let the public vote on those options instead of five flag designs. Alas.

Some Numbers
How much has the taxpayer’s bill for Super risen in the last 20 years? Interestingly, zero, due to helpful demographics and especially the increase in the age of eligibility from 60 to 65 through 1993-2001. However the times they are a changing and the cost is now rising by $700 million per year. By the middle of the 2020s it will be rising by $1.5 billion per year. If tax cuts are difficult now, they will be impossible by then.

A Young Person’s Problem
Raising the age of Super entitlement is seen as an act of intergenerational war, but it’s not. There are basically three groups of people when it comes to Superannuation. Those who have retired. Those who will retire in the foreseeable future. Those who will not retire for twenty years or more.

Current Superannuitants
Unless there is a crisis of Greek proportions, no conceivable change will affect current superannuitants. There are too many of them and they vote religiously.

Retiring Soon(ish)
Any adjustment to the age of Superannuation won’t start immediately, and will be staggered over a period of time. For example it could start in 2020 with the age of entitlement rising two months per year for 12 years until it reaches 67. So a current 50-year-old would be entitled to Super in 2031 instead of 2030. A small loss, but nothing compared to what’s waiting for those who follow them.

Miles Off
By the time current university students retire the number of workers per superannuitant will have dropped from five to two. So instead of five workers supporting each recipient, there will be only two. For those under 45, the question is when, not if, Super will be adjusted. It’s their issue to plan for.

An Ineffective Minister
When Minister for Treaty Negotiations Chris Finlayson signed over ownership of 14 Auckland volcanic cones to iwi, he said there would be “no change to public access.” He made a promise he could not enforce, and now the Maunga Authority is banning people from driving up the mountain.

When is a Change not a Change
Under questioning he crumbled from ‘standing by his statement’ that there were no changes to blaming the changes on the Maunga Authority to saying the changes were acceptable within a couple of minutes. You can watch David Seymour’s questioning of the Minister here.

What the Change Means
The Maunga Authority has been far from upfront about its changes. However searches of meeting minutes suggest that by the end of this year electric gates will be installed and nobody will be able to drive up the mountain unless they satisfy authorities that they are sufficiently disabled.

Bureaucratic Madness
The Authority’s minutes suggest that people will have to drive up to a gate, explain by phone to a remote council staffer why they can’t walk, and be given a gate code if the staffer decides they need it. Nobody should have to justify their ability to a council staffer over the phone.

Identifying the Losers
One hopes that there will be a more workable solution reached, but the Authority don’t seem to be taking it very seriously. Chris Finlayson evidently couldn’t care less, saying it’s no longer his problem. Whatever rigmarole is put in place, it will discourage the busy, the elderly, the disabled, and likely those with small children from using the mountain.

Trying to See the Positive
Those who like to walk the mountain will get a more tranquil experience. Most of them live at its foot in the Epsom electorate (who says we’re not principled?). What is in question is the numbers of people who will get to enjoy it.

Take Action
David Seymour has established a website for the silent majority. www.mtedensummit.nzallows you to voice your view. Amazingly the Maunga Authority has done no consultation of those who actually use the mountain. Nor can they provide any proof that people are damaging it by driving up it. Strictly this is a local matter (sorry non-Aucklanders if you’re still reading), but if the local authorities won’t ask you, the MP for Epsom will.

A Possible Compromise
There is still time to achieve the best of both worlds. Walkers tend to be energetic people who rise early. The Authority could lock the mountain to drivers in the morning, and let them enjoy it in the afternoon.

ACT’s next Regional Conference
Speaking of Local Government, it is the theme of ACT’s next regional conference. It’s taking place in Pukekohe on December 5th. Judith Collins is a guest speaker and David Seymour will speak on ACT’s plan for local government. You can register here.

Drowning Postponed
Despite some rather hyped reporting, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Jan Wright, has released a sensible report on sea level rise. It shows how far reporting on climate change has come. Once we watched Al Gore scare us witless with computer generated images of whole cities under water. Wright’s report says that sea level rise will continue as it has for some time now, since well before any human influence on global warming. Maybe, 9,000 of New Zealand’s 1.6 million odd homes could be under threat if we don’t figure out how to protect them in the decades through to 2100. As the report says, we should plan for a gradual lift in sea levels, but there is time to prepare carefully. “There are few cases where action is required soon, but in most cases it is important to do it well rather than rush.” Here’s to science.

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