Free Press 30th November
Free Press
ACT’s regular bulletin
Politician of the
Year
The mysterious but often accurate
Wellington politics publication trans-Tasman has named David Seymour politician of the
year. We are not getting too carried away as David also
won most improved player in his first year of rugby and
turned out to be a thoroughly average player. Nevertheless
we’ll take the bouquet, and pass on the thanks to loyal
Free Pressreaders.
Something to
Celebrate…
Free Press readers may use
or browse iPredict.co.nz. It’s an innovative
tool allowing pundits to place tiny-to-moderate amounts of
money on various news predictions. This inside knowledge
then provides market-based, poll-beating likelihoods of
political and economic outcomes, helping individuals and
businesses (and perhaps one day governments) plan for the
future.
…Killed with Red
Tape
But now Associate Justice Minister Simon
Bridges has decided the site represents a money-laundering
risk, and so iPredict is shutting down in the face of
overwhelming red tape. It’s a classic example of
government reacting to technology and innovation with
knee-jerk paranoia. Free Press isn’t alone in
calling on the Minister to rethink his position. Watch this
space.
The Most Important Skill in
Politics
Parliament is often compared to kindy.
That’s generally a disservice to kindy kids but both
places are about learning to count. Candidate selections,
laws, leadership contests, and elections are really just
exercises in counting the numbers. Last week’s
one-step-forward-one-step-back RMA reforms make for a stark
example.
MMP
New Zealanders
voted to try MMP in 1993 and to keep it in 2011. It’s
here to stay. MMP means no party can count to 61 without a
coalition, so smart pundits focus on coalitions rather than
parties. Many journalists have no memory of pre-MMP
politics but party-centric reporting continues.
Don’t Cry for Me Aotearoa
A
majority in parliament requires 61 votes. Before the
Northland by election Nat 60 + ACT 1 could pass laws. By
electing Winston Peters, Northland voters ensured a majority
in parliament requires Nat 59 + ACT 1 + Peter Dunne or Nat
59 + Maori 2=61. It’s easier to get two Maori Party MPs
to agree with each other than get Peter Dunne to agree with
ACT and National, so Northlanders made the Maori-National
coalition all powerful.
The Message Hits
Home
Nowhere in New Zealand stands to benefit
more from RMA reform more than Northland. It is poor,
poorly served by roads, and could do well from mining
activity. All of these problems would be helped by
substantial RMA reform. More affordable housing, fewer
delays in road building, and more likelihood of
capital-intensive mining activity. Sadly Northland voters
have ensured there will be no meaningful RMA reform before
2017.
Not Really Governing
ACT
campaigned on keeping John Key as Prime Minister. If a day
of watching parliamentary speeches from Labour, the Greens,
and New Zealand First doesn’t convince you how important
this is, nothing will. However RMA reform was a test and
it’s shown that on many issues John Key can now only
exercising power to the extent that the Maori Party wants
him to.
The Maori Party’s Quiet
Success
By 2017 the Maori Party will have
enjoyed nine years holding the balance of power. They have
never held it exclusively because ACT, National, and Peter
Dunne have always had an alternative majority. Nevertheless
they have been the largest or equal largest coalition
partner throughout that period and have advanced their
agenda well. They show what a small party can achieve.
A Bouquet
We are belated admirers of
Amy Adams’ 2012 RMA reform proposals. There was much
wrong with them. In particular was the greater use of
edicts from Wellington, a symptom of National’s
centralising instinct. Nonetheless Adams at least proposed
to reform the underlying principles of the ACT, and include
a clause about property rights.
A
Brickbat
Environment Minister Nick Smith has
done his best to negotiate RMA reform under the political
constraints he faces. However this means tinkering at best,
for example allowing consents to be set by email. The most
significant change is requiring councils to consult with Iwi
earlier in the planning process. There has been no
reduction in the complexity of planning and consenting.
What if National Weren’t
Constrained?
After the last election John Key
said RMA reform was not about the numbers. He could have
passed comprehensive reform with ACT’s support only but
said he would not. We will never know if Key would have
done real RMA reform with ACT this term. What we do know is
that such reform will now require a strengthened ACT after
2017.
Why real RMA Reform
Matters
The current RMA requires councils to
consider ‘the intrinsic values of ecosystems’ and ‘the
efficiency of the end use of energy’ among 18 such
‘principles.’ It contains the phrase ‘inappropriate
subdivision’ 156 times in its 900-odd pages. Small wonder
that a council culture has developed where getting anything
done is subject to delay, uncertainty and cost, and that
there are far fewer houses consented today than the peak
year, 1973.
What is Real RMA
Reform?
Real RMA reform would comprehensively
reform the principles of the Act. The Act should address
specific environmental harms to the air, water, soil and
biodiversity, and immediate conflicts between the rights of
property owners. That’s it. Instead it is carte blanche
for planners to impose social engineering on whole cities.
The cost of foregone projects is inestimable.
Serial Saboteur
None of this will
concern Winston Peters. While ACT views public policy as
the ultimate output and whole point of politics, Peters
views it as background noise. The Northland result
satisfies his lifelong yearning to be taken seriously, as
did being the Treasurer under Jim Bolger and Foreign
Minister under Helen Clark. He ultimately brought down both
those governments.
Third
Strike
Adding up the deals made by successive
governments to keep Peters’ support, he is easily the most
expensive citizen ever born in New Zealand. Current polling
suggests he will again hold the balance of power. What
would happen? Unlike many Prime Ministers, John Key has
very attractive options for the rest of his life. Bill
English has had an exemplary career. They have no need to
stick around and put up with Peters.
Motivated as all Hell
ACT must grow
itself to a party of 4-5 MPs by winning 3-4 per cent of the
vote. Doing so will end the Maori Party’s run of
influence, keep Peters away from his baubles, and restart
the stagnant National agenda for liberal economic reform.
This week has made the reality clearer than ever.
Musical Taste
ACT is here to tackle
the tough issues, but the media will just as readily report
that David Seymour likes Lorde. If you’ve done absolutely
everything else you need to do today, here is Q+A interviewing politicians about
music. Awards go to Shane Reti for best guitar, James
Shaw for most uptight, and Marama Fox for most
opposite-of-uptight. Afterwards, three out of four Q+A
panellists pick out David Seymour as having had a great
year.
ACT Events
David
Seymour’s Epsom Christmas Drinks this weekend were
uproariously successful. ACT’s Wellington Christmas
Drinks are this Wednesday (register here), there is also a
quarterly Epsom report-back tonight in Newmarket, a Auckland South
regional conference on December 5, an ACT Christmas Dinner
in Auckland on December 7, and save the
date for a Christchurch end of Year BBQ on December
12th.
Join and Donate
ACT is
going well. Better than the pundits expected, that’s for
sure. We can play a critical role deciding what sort of
coalition New Zealand will have after 2017. Please consider
joining us. Membership lists are secret
but your number adds moral weight. Please consider donating to ACT. ACT receives no
taxpayer funding (David Seymour’s office is only for
parliamentary and electorate duties), so rebuilding ACT is
down to generous supporters like
you.
ENDS