Free Press:ACT’s regular bulletin
Free Press
ACT’s regular
bulletin
The Simplest
Explanation
John Key’s retirement makes
perfect sense for John Key. Why sit around to experience
your own political funeral when you’ve got a life to get
on with? For all the speculation about the ‘real reason’
for Key’s resignation, the simplest explanation is usually
the best: he had achieved what he wanted being Prime
Minister for eight years, and with no further ambitions he
decided to move on. David Seymour’s contribution to the
snap parliamentary debate on Key’s resignation is here.
Seismic
Shift
As a politician, Key was a phenomenon.
Helen Clark was a formidable politician too, but she never
broke 42 per cent in the three elections that made her Prime
Minister. Bill English is good but will be highly unlikely
to break 45 per cent, meaning that the form of the next
Government will turn on coalitions. There has never been a
greater need and opportunity for ACT to succeed.
A Simple Formula
Approximately every
0.7 per cent of the nationwide party vote translates to a
seat in Parliament. Nobody is questioning that David
Seymour will win Epsom, meaning that 0.7 per cent prevents
his seat being an overhang. 1.4 per cent brings in two ACT
MPs, 2.1 per cent three, 2.8 per cent four, 3.5 per cent
five, and so on. Due to the so-called coat tail rule, ACT
does not need to break five per cent to elect additional
list MPs so long as it wins an electorate seat.
A Base for Doing Well
When ACT has
done poorly (in 2005, 2011, and 2014) it has gone into
election year with a new leader, sustained negative
publicity of some kind, and an uncertain path back to
Parliament. When ACT has succeeded (such as in 2002 with
nine MPs and 2008 with five) the opposite three conditions
have been in place: continuity of leadership, positive
coverage of ACT, and confidence of being back in Parliament
due to winning a seat or breaking five percent. 2017 has
the base for being one of ACT’s good years.
A Base is Not Enough
ACT’s
successes have come from the party proposing policies that
the Government would not think of or have the support to do
itself, but nonetheless can do with ACT’s pressure and
support. Partnership Schools are a classic example. In this
week’s tete-a-tete with Jacinda Ardern David Seymour outlines what ACT would
bring to the table in education, housing, tax,
superannuation, crime, welfare, and productivity growth. A
further interview on the role ACT will play in a future
Government from Q+A this weekend is here.
Another
Anti-Partnership School Bill Bites the Dust
ACT,
National, United Future and the Maori Party voted down
Labour’s latest political stunt bill designed to smear
Partnership Schools last week. This is the third bill of its
type Labour have had drawn and voted down this Parliamentary
term. The sad thing is the outright lies and misinformation
that the Opposition peddle about the schools, which David
destroys in this reply speech to the bill.
Changing Kids’ Lives for the
Better
The most important question for opponents
of Partnership Schools is whether they are truly concerned
that eight small schools will ultimately fail and close, or
whether they are more likely to grow and multiply to become
a major part of the education system that does not require
union contracts? Of course the latter is more likely as the
schools continue to achieve outstanding results for their
students even in their first few years.
Conference Reminder
ACT’s election
year conference has the theme ‘Ideas that Work’, and
will carry on the themes in the Sunday Star Times piece
(linked earlier) with an outstanding line up of speakers.
You can view the full program (and register) here, we hope to see you there.
ends