ACT’s annual conference was well attended and received saturation media coverage. The message? A crash is coming, big government is a growing liability under Jacinda Ardern, and only ACT is prepared to draw a line under that growth by reducing the size of Government, literally.

Grim Figures

As Michael Riddell has pointed out, the Reserve Bank just lowered growth expectations dramatically. How dramatically? The last three times the Bank revised growth expectations downward as far as it has this quarter were in 1997 and 2008. Some of the factors behind this are beyond the control of any New Zealand Government. Trump’s sabre rattling over trade, the Fed ending quantitative easing, rising oil prices are some.

Things We Can Control

Meanwhile in New Zealand, our Government seems hellbent on making sure the next economic landing is as hard as possible. Low quality spending such as fees free tertiary study, bad regulation such as the Overseas Investment Amendment Act, and total stupidity such as the shock ban on oil and gas exploration. There is one person ultimately responsible.

The Accidental Prime Minister

It’s hard not to like Jacinda Adrern, but we need to face facts. If almost any other leader in the world said they were designing policy on their friends’ living room floor they’d be rightly and roundly pilloried. Getting away with it could be a tribute to her political savvy, or a sign that she is not taken seriously.

Adding Two and Two

This Government lurches from one disastrous policy to another and business confidence is in freefall. Jacinda Ardern is responsible for this Government’s policies, and those policies are taking us into a hard landing. It is time to tell the truth: the empress has no clothes.

Fighting Back

This weekend, ACT released a members' bill that will reduce the number of MPs to 100 and the number of Ministers to 20. It would mean the average electorate had 91,000 people, below the OECD average of 98,000. It would require list MPs to stand in an electorate, and serve that electorate if they lost but were elected on their party list. The Bill has a clause that requires it become law only after a referendum of the New Zealand public says it should.

Too Many Ministers

The 1980s reforms were carried out by a cabinet of 20. Today we have a Minister for Infrastructure, a Minister for Transport, a Minister for Economic Development, a Minister for Regional Economic Development, and a Minister of Local Government (some of these have additional Associate Ministers). Who is responsible for the infrastructure that gets goods to market? How can these Ministers tell bureaucrats to be focused and accountable?

What do List MPs Do?

Some list MPs don’t stand in any electorate. Others do, get elected on the list, and are never seen again. ACT’s bill will make up for larger electorates by requiring list MPs to stand in an electorate and, if they lose the electorate but are elected on the list, they will have to maintain an office in that electorate like electorate MPs have to.

Down to Earth

We think electorate work will be good for many list MPs, connecting their policies with the real world. Chloe Swarbrick MP stood in Maungakiekie but hasn’t been seen in the electorate since. Perhaps she could help little old ladies get their groceries home without plastic bags? Winston Peters hasn’t been seen in Northland since the election except for fishing trips. Perhaps he could help people fill out their superannuation forms correctly?

Who Will Vote for the Bill?

Simon Bridges has said he is open to the bill, with concern about some details. National plus ACT gives 57 votes. New Zealand First have a further nine votes for a majority. What will Winston Peters do? He says he won’t vote for any ACT bill. Really? There is a good chance that New Zealand First will have the casting vote on a bill to achieve its own policy. Interesting times ahead.

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