Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | Video | Questions Of the Day | Search


NZIER's confidence comforting - but justified?

2000 web site
"Let's hope the NZIER's confidence that the economy will come out of the current "flat patch" and regain momentum next year proves correct. But this is far from guaranteed," Labour finance spokesperson Michael Cullen said today.

Dr Cullen was commenting on the release this morning of the NZIER's latest set of quarterly predictions. The Institute is forecasting real GDP growth of 3 percent in the year to March, 2000 rising to 4 percent the following year.

"The forecasts will no doubt be seized on shamelessly by the Government as a vindication of its economic policies. In anticipation of the usual chest-beating, I would point out that the growth foreshadowed by the NZIER is essentially cyclical and reflects a strengthening world economy rather than any specific New Zealand or Government initiative.

"Labour remains sceptical about how quickly the recovery will flow through to the export sector. And the NZIER itself acknowledges that part of the reason why its growth forecasts look high is that they are coming off a very low base," Dr Cullen said.

The NZIER report includes a discussion of the policy implications of a change of Government.

"Clearly the NZIER continues to believe that New Zealand's economic problems will self-correct and that the only role for government is to stand on the sidelines and watch the market perform its magic. It can hold to this belief only by resolutely ignoring the evidence of the past few years.

"The weakness in New Zealand's external accounts, and the NZIER's own forecast that the balance of payments deficit will balloon out to over 7 percent of GDP, point to several structural flaws.

"The Institute is right to identify the need to increase national savings. Labour's policy to partially pre-fund the future costs of New Zealand Superannuation through a dedicated tax taken from existing taxation is our response to that challenge.

"But we have no intention of following the Institute's advice and redesigning our scheme to include individual accounts and participation by the private sector. We reject it for the same reasons we rejected Winston Peters compulsory super' model - because it would lead to increased costs and would be less equitable.

"As to the Institute's concern at the dangers of having a "large centralised fund under direct control of government," I can only sigh and once again invite them to actually read our policy.

"If they did, they would know that the fund will be managed by a independent board and that there will be a legal requirement that the money in the fund can be used only for superannuation payments," Dr Cullen said.

© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On The Peters/Ardern Triumph

There are a lot of good reasons to feel joyful about this outcome. It is what so many young voters – the best hope for the country’s future – wanted.

Far more important than the implications for the Economy Gods ( is the dollar up or down? ) last night’s outcome will also mean many, many vulnerable New Zealanders will have a better life over the next three years at least.

Yet the desire for change was in the majority, across the country..>>>More


Labour on its agreement |Peters: Post-Election Announcement Speech | Greenpeace “cautiously hopeful” about new Government | ACT - Madman on the loose | E tū ecstatic | Chamber welcomes the outcome | Greens on their joining Govt | EDS welcomes new govt | Immigrant groups worry | Feds ready to engage new coalition government | Labour Ministers of the Crown announced


Climate: Increasing Greenhouse Emissions Hit NZ

New Zealand is seeing impacts of excess greenhouse gas emissions in our climate and oceans, according to the latest national report from the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ about the state of the atmosphere and climate…More>>


Wellington.Scoop: Arrests At Blockade Of "Weapons Expo"

“We encourage people in Wellington to get down to the Westpac Stadium now for a day of awesome peace action. There will be plenty of food, music and activities to keep us sustained through the day.” More>>


Rorschach Restructuring: PSA Taking Inland Revenue To Court Over Psychometrics

The Public Service Association will be seeing Inland Revenue in Employment Court over its intention to psychometrically test employees reapplying for their roles at the department as part of its controversial Business Transformation restructuring plan. More>>


Nuclear Disarmament: Nobel Peace Prize 2017 Awarded To ICAN

Congratulations from iCAN Aotearoa New Zealand to international iCAN, the other iCAN national campaigns and partner organisations, and the countless organisations and individuals who have worked so hard for a nuclear weapons-free world since 1945. More>>


Expenses: Waikato DHB CEO Resigns

An independent inquiry has identified that Dr Murray had spent more than the agreed $25K allocated for relocation costs, and other unauthorized expenses involving potential financial breaches of the chief executive’s obligations. More>>


Wellington.Scoop: Sad About The Trolley Buses?

The Regional Council’s MetLink is today spending money to tell us that it really loves Wellington’s trolley buses, even though they’re all being taken off our roads by the end of this month. More>>


Post-Election: Preliminary Coalition Talks Begin

New Zealand First will hold post-election preliminary discussions in Wellington with the National Party tomorrow morning and the Labour Party tomorrow afternoon. More>>




Featured InfoPages

Opening the Election