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3 News TNS Opinion Poll - 27 May to 3 June 2004

Opinion Poll
Results
27 May to 3 June 2004

"TNS is the new name for NFO/CM Research, New Zealand's leading consultative market research and intelligence company"

Press Release: 3 News TNS Opinion Poll Results

27th May to 3rd June 2004
Projected number of seats in the House
on the basis of the latest poll results
Number of seats
Option One* Number of seats
Option Two*
Labour 58 57
National 55 53
NZ First 7 7
Green Party - -
Progressive Coalition - 1
ACT - -
United Future NZ - 3
Total seats 120 121

One
* These figures include only those parties who gain above the 5% threshold on the Party Vote, and do not take into account Electorate Vote support

Two
* These figures are based on Progressive Coalition and United Future NZ winning one electorate seat as currently

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National's rapid rise has stalled...

Labour has stabilised its party support, regaining a slender lead over National (43% cf. 40%). NZ First is the only other party to reach the 5% threshold and in this scenario would be in a strong negotiating position to hold the balance of power.

As preferred PM, Don Brash has failed to gain any further ground over the past four months. Helen Clark still leads the preferred PM stakes by nine points
Most people still think Helen Clark is performing well as PM. For Don Brash we have seen a weakening in perceived performance as leader of the opposition
However perceptions of Helen Clark being in touch with the needs of Maori has fallen by 8 points.

Interviewing for this poll started on the evening of the recent Budget and concluded before the Green Party stated the GE moratorium would no longer be a game breaker for working as coalition partner with Labour.

Research Methodology

Date poll was conducted

Interviews were conducted over the period 27th May to 3rd June 2004

Sample Size

1000 voter eligible New Zealanders aged 18+

Sampling Technique

Telephone Interviews. Random generation of telephone numbers with quota sampling to ensure representative cross section by age, sex and geography.

Sample Coverage

National including rural, secondary urban and main urban areas

Sample Error

Maximum of 3.1% expressed at a 95% confidence level

CHARTS

MMP Voting : Party Vote

If a general election was held yesterday under MMP, which political party would you have voted for with your Party Vote? That is, for the political party you most want to be represented in parliament.
% of those who stated a preference
2002 2003 2004
4-9 Jun
% 27-4
Jun
% 4-9
Jul
% 11-16
Jul
% 18-24
Jul
% Election Result
27 July
% 16-22
Sep
% 18-24
Nov
% 10-16
Feb
% 7-13
Apr
% 9-16
June
% 4-10
Aug
% 25 Sep
-4 Oct
% 21-27
Nov
% 29 Jan - 4 Feb
% 27-29
Feb
% 25-31
March
% 27 May -3 June
%
Labour 56 51 48 46 43 41.3 49 50 56 53 52 52 46 49 43 39 42 43
National 24 24 24 25 21 20.9 19 19 21 26 24 23 24 23 32 42 42 40
Alliance 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.1
Progressive Coalition * 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0.2
NZ First 3.1 5.7 8 8 8 10.4 10 10 6 5 8 9 10 9 8 6 5 5
ACT 3.9 5.0 6 6 8 7.1 5.0 4.8 4.2 4.9 4.5 5 6 4.8 4.2 2.4 1.3 2.0
Green Party 9 11 8 9 9 7.0 8 8 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 6 4.6 4.6
Christian Heritage 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4
United Future NZ * * 0.9 0.7 3.9 6.7 4.7 5 3.6 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.9 2.1 2.3
All Others 1.3 0.6 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.2 2 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 0.9 2.2 1.4 1.7
Base: 841 811 848 829 852 2031617 895 871 841 836 870 862 845 853 819 867 873 844
Don't know/undecided 13 17 13 15 13 7 9 12 11 9 11 12 11 15 11 10 13
Would not vote 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 3.6 3 2 3 3
Base: 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
* less than 0.5 percent

MMP Voting : Electorate Vote

If a general election was held yesterday, using MMP, which party would you have voted for, with your electorate vote? That is, for the MP in your area.
% of those who stated a preference
2002 2003 2004
4-9
Jun
% 27-4
Jun
% 4-9
Jul
% 11-16
Jul
% 18-24
Jul
% 16-22
Sep
% 18-24
Nov
% 10-16
Feb
% 7-13
Apr
% 9-16
Jun
% 4-10
Aug
% 25 Sep
-4 Oct
% 21-27
Nov
% 29 Jan - 4 Feb
% 27-29
Feb
% 25-31
March
% 27 May -3 June
%
Labour 54 52 52 50 44 51 51 55 53 51 52 47 50 43 43 43 43
National 29 30 30 30 33 28 27 26 29 29 29 31 29 37 44 44 41
Alliance 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 * 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4
Progressive Coalition * * 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 * 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 * 0.1
NZ First 3.0 5.3 4.5 6 5 4.9 7 6 4.7 6 7 7 7 8 4.0 3.8 6
ACT 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.1 2.6 1.5 1.1 1.0
Green Party 7.1 6.3 6 6 6 6 6 4.8 4 6 4.6 6 7 5 3.5 3.9 3.2
United Future NZ n/a 1.0 0.9 1.2 2.9 3.3 3.4 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.6 1.6 2.0 0.8 1.8 2.2
All Others 3.2 1.4 2.2 1.6 6.1 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.6 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.6 0.9 2.3 4.3 2.4
Base: 764 736 751 747 807 854 839 786 768 786 797 769 793 758 807 787 777
Don't know/ undecided 21 25 22 23 16 11 12 18 18 17 17 20 17 21 18 19 20
Would not vote 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 2.9 1.4 3 3
Base: 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Preferred Prime Minister

If you were able to vote for any politician in New Zealand to be Prime Minister, for whom would you vote?
2002 2003 2004
4-9
Jun
% 27-4
Jun
% 4-9
Jul
% 11-16
Jul
% 18-24
Jul
% 16-22
Sep
% 18-24
Nov
% 10-16
Feb
% 7-13
Apr
% 9-16
Jun
% 4-10
Aug
% 25 Sep
-4 Oct
% 21-27
Nov
% 29Jan - 4 Feb
% 27-29
Feb
% 25-31
Mar
% 27 May -3 June
%
Helen Clark 48 42 44 39 41 42 41 47 44 44 40 37 35 35 35 36 35
Don Brash - - - - - - - - 8 3 2 3 10 14 27 27 26
Winston Peters 6 8 8 10 9 11 13 8 9 13 14 16 12 14 11 7 9
Bill English 12 11 12 14 12 8 7 6 8 7 7 5 2 1 1 * 1
Peter Dunne - - - - 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * 1 1
Jim Anderton 1 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 * 1 *
Richard Prebble 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * 1 * * *
Phil Goff * - 1 1 * * * * 1 1 1 * * * 1 * *
Jeanette Fitzsimmons * 1 1 1 1 * 1 * * 1 * 1 1 * 1 * *
None 6 7 6 5 6 6 8 11 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 6 4
Don't know 17 20 19 20 16 17 16 17 15 16 18 18 17 19 14 14 16
Base: 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
* Less than 0.5%

How is Helen Clark Performing?

Thinking now about the Prime Minister. How would you rate the performance of Helen Clark as Prime Minister? Overall, would you say that as Prime Minister she is performing well or poorly? Is that Very ... or Fairly ... ?
2002 2003 2004
11-16
Jul 18-24
Jul 16-22
Sep 18-24
Nov 10-16
Feb 7-13
Apr 9-16
Jun 4-10
Aug 25 Sep
-4 Oct 21-27
Nov
29Jan - 4 Feb
25-31
March 27 May -3 June
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Very Well 28 26 31 25 30 28 24 25 19 23 22 21 20
Fairly Well 43 45 44 46 42 40 41 43 45 41 41 38 39
Total - Performed Well 71 71 75 71 72 68 65 68 64 64 63 59 59
Neither Well nor Poorly 11 11 12 13 14 10 14 11 11 15 15 14 13
Fairly Poorly 9 11 7 9 8 12 12 12 15 12 14 17 17
Very Poorly 5 5 3 5 5 9 8 7 9 8 7 9 11
Total - Performed Poorly 14 16 10 14 13 21 20 19 24 20 21 26 28
Don't know 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1
Base 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

How is Don Brash Performing?

And now thinking about Don Brash, the leader of the National Party in opposition. How would you rate his performance. Overall would you say he is performing well or poorly? Is that Very ... or Fairly ... ?

Total Bill English Total Don Brash
2002 2003 2003 2004
18-24
Nov 10-16
Feb 7-13
Apr 9-15
Jun 4-10
Aug 25 Sep-4
Oct 21-27 Nov 29 Jan - 4 Feb 25-31
March 27 May -3 June
% % % % % % % % % %
Very Well 2 3 3 3 3 2 4 7 24 18
Fairly Well 17 16 18 19 17 17 23 29 34 32
Total - Performed Well 19 19 21 22 20 19 27 36 58 50
Neither Well nor Poorly 13 16 11 13 14 12 17 17 12 14
Fairly Poorly 35 35 35 33 33 35 14 18 10 12
Very Poorly 27 24 25 26 27 26 11 13 12 14
Total - Performed Poorly 62 59 60 59 60 61 25 31 22 26
Don't know 7 6 8 5 5 7 32 16 8 10
Base 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000


How is Don Brash Performing?

And now thinking about Don Brash, the leader of the National Party in opposition. How would you rate his performance. Overall would you say he is performing well or poorly? Is that Very ... or Fairly ... ?
National Voters - Bill English National Voters Don Brash
2002 2003 2004
18-24 Nov 10-16 Feb 7-13 Apr 9-15 Jun 4-10 Aug 25 Sep-4 Oct 21-27 Nov 29 Jan - 4 Feb 25-31 Mar 27 May -3 June
% % % % % % % % % %
Very Well 3 6 6 3 5 5 9 14 43 36
Fairly Well 28 22 28 33 26 30 39 51 44 47
Total - Performed Well 31 28 34 36 31 35 48 65 87 83
Neither Well nor Poorly 19 23 14 16 18 16 21 18 8 9
Fairly Poorly 37 37 35 31 35 37 8 7 3 4
Very Poorly 10 10 14 13 13 10 2 2 * 2
Total - Performed Poorly 47 47 49 44 48 47 10 9 3 6
Don't know 4 2 4 3 2 2 21 9 3 3
Base 169 176 216 210 197 206 197 264 370 340

I am going to read out some things, both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians.

I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Helen Clark. Would you say she...

Helen Clark Agreeing
2002 2003 2004
8-14
Apr 4-9
Jun 27-4
Jul 4-9
Jul 11-16
Jul 18-24
Jul 16-22
Sep 18-24
Nov 10-16
Feb 7-13
Apr 9-16
Jun 4-10
Aug 25 Sep
-4Oct 29 Jan - 4 Feb 25-31
March 27 May -3 June
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Is a capable leader 85 85 86 83 84 89 86 87 83 82 83 80 82 83 81 79
Has more style than substance 24 22 23 24 20 22 24 22 22 25 29 25 26 25 24 28
Would be good in a crisis 75 73 76 70 72 74 75 75 66 70 70 69 73 68 68 69
Tends to talk down to people 36 41 39 43 47 41 44 39 43 44 43 46 46 44 46 50
Is rather narrow minded 27 31 28 29 30 29 30 27 32 33 33 34 35 35 34 36
Is too inflexible 35 38 35 40 43 36 40 34 40 42 39 43 44 43 41 41
Has sound judgement 71 70 69 67 71 74 70 74 65 65 67 66 67 69 65 63
Is more honest than most politicians 57 54 52 47 47 57 55 59 61 62 59 55 54 58 54 53
Is down to earth 79 74 78 76 74 78 75 78 76 75 74 71 73 73 72 69
Understands the economic problems facing New Zealand 71 69 69 66 71 68 68 71 68 67 69 68 65 64 63 66
Has a lot of personality 46 43 48 41 42 44 44 44 42 45 43 40 42 43 37 38
Is rather inexperienced 14 12 13 11 13 11 14 12 16 16 15 14 14 15 14 15
Is out of touch with ordinary people 29 32 31 32 32 29 34 34 36 38 38 42 43 40 41 43
In touch with the needs of Maori 60 60 55 56 56 62 62 65 63 66 63 57 60 62 61 53
Base: 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

I would now like you to tell me which of these statements you feel fit Don Brash. Would you say he...

Bill English Agreeing Don Brash Agreeing
2003 2003 2004
10-16
Feb 7-13
Apr 9-16
June 4-10
Aug 25 Sep
-2 October 21-27
Nov 29 Jan -
4 Feb 25-31
Mar 27 May -3 June
% % % % % % % % %
Is a capable leader 25 29 32 27 28 41 45 61 57
Has more style than substance 32 28 35 35 32 22 24 28 32
Would be good in a crisis 27 29 33 31 31 42 45 54 54
Tends to talk down to people 33 28 33 34 32 37 42 43 47
Is rather narrow minded 38 33 39 41 39 33 38 40 44
Is too inflexible 35 34 35 35 37 31 34 35 37
Has sound judgement 32 35 38 37 38 47 54 58 57
Is more honest than most politicians 41 46 45 45 43 30 37 44 43
Is down to earth 62 65 67 65 66 34 39 47 46
Understands the economic problems facing New Zealand 51 53 58 54 54 62 70 77 75
Has a lot of personality 32 33 34 30 29 21 24 32 30
Is rather inexperienced 68 64 68 66 67 54 53 58 53
Is out of touch with ordinary people 41 33 40 39 35 41 43 39 46
In touch with the needs of Maori 23 26 28 24 26 13 20 26 28
Base: 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Measures of Confidence

2001 2002 2003 2004
5-10
June
% 6-12
Aug
% 1-7 Oct
% 3-9
Dec
% 18-24 Feb
% 8-14
Apr
% 4-9
Jun
% 27-4
Jul
% 18-24
Nov
% 10-16
Feb
% 7-13
Apr
% 9-16
Jun
% 4-10
Aug
% 25-4
Oct
% 21-27
Nov
% 29 Jan - 4 Feb
% 25-31
March
% 27 May -3 June
%
NZ Economy Improve/ Deteriorate in The Next Three Months:
- Improve 49 51 32 53 58 56 57 48 49 41 36 44 44 54 52 43 40 40
- Deteriorate 25 24 49 27 17 21 18 24 25 31 37 30 27 21 22 29 28 30
- Neither/nor 20 20 14 14 20 18 18 22 21 20 21 21 24 21 23 23 24 23
- Don't know 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 4 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 7 7
Nett Improvement/ (Deterioration) 24 27 (17) 26 41 35 39 24 24 10 (1) 14 17 33 30 14 12 10
Unemployment Over The Next Three Months:
- Increase 34 31 46 41 31 40 36 36 40 34 39 42 32 33 34 34 33 33
- Decrease 40 46 33 40 43 36 38 35 40 39 31 34 45 44 45 40 36 37
- Neither/nor 19 17 15 13 19 18 19 21 15 19 23 21 19 18 17 21 22 25
- Don't know 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 5 8 7 4 5 5 4 5 8 6
Nett Increase/ (Decrease) (6) (15) 13 1 (12) 4 (2) 1 0 (5) 8 8 (13) (11) (11) (6) (3) (4)
Is New Zealand Becoming a Better or Worse Place to Live In?
- Better 37 35 42 44 42 42 46 38 37 45 47 41 40 40 42 43 43 40
- Worse 42 45 38 38 40 37 35 42 39 38 36 41 43 43 40 38 39 39
- Neither/nor 18 17 16 14 14 16 15 15 19 13 13 15 14 15 15 17 15 18
- Don't know 4 3 4 3 3 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 4 2 3 3 3 3
Nett Better/(Worse) (5) (10) 4 6 2 5 11 (4) (2) 7 11 0 (3) (3) 2 5 4 1
Base: 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

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