Government about to make a monumental mistake
PowerLess New Zealand
PowerLess NZ is a growing group of scientists, energy analysts and concerned citizens whose principle objectives are to alert both Government and the general public to New Zealand’s looming energy crisis. Our aim is to support development of renewable energy resources at both a private and public level, as well as encourage a firm move away from dependence upon fossil fuels.
13 August 2004, Wellington
Government about to make a monumental mistake.
“Truth emerges more readily from error than from confusion” Francis Bacon.
It is clear that policy makers, Government bigwigs, ostentatious self-promoting Mayors and general associated ignorami are about to make an error of monumental proportions. The mistake involves the gross misappropriation of public funds to build roading systems in Auckland and throughout NZ that in all likelihood will be empty of drivers early next decade. Powerless NZ urge all New Zealanders to hold these people to account as they blindly stumble into this mistake.
The paradigm of the internal combustion engine literally driving suburban life as well as our economy is about to come crashing down around us. Global production of oil is simply unable to meet growing demand. The warning signs ought to be clearly evident to all by now however we outline them again in case they were missed:
Oil prices have increased by about 40% this year. OPEC, traditionally the swing producer, able to make up for shortfalls in supply, this week have admitted to only having 600,000 barrels of oil spare capacity, this represents 0.73% of the daily global demand. OPECs President last week claimed “we have no more capacity”, the following day he withdrew the statement (interesting to say the least). The world consumes about 82.7 million barrels of oil per day. Yukos provided just over 1% of the daily global supply. China’s demand in oil is growing at about 20% per annum, with no sign of slowing up in the near future. Demand for oil by 2007 is expected to be around 90 million barrels per day. Global production peak within the next year or two is expected to be about 85 million barrels per day, once the world is producing at the peak there simply will be no ability to produce more.
By the end of this decade there will be a physical shortage of available oil caused by the peak production event. The world will be demanding more than the available supply. No markets, no technology will provide the shortfall. Any decrease in the price will simply increase the demand thus exacerbating the problem.
What is New Zealand’s Government doing about this impending crisis? Spending billions on roads of course.
Without conducting appropriate risk analyses taking into consideration the predicted production peak this Government and its petrol-headed buddy John Banks are guilty of serious misappropriation of public funds. We urge all New Zealanders to hold these people to account immediately – preferably before they make the mistake.
At the very least all ministers (including the Prime Minister) should be happy to stand up in public and say “we have considered the global peak oil production issue and are continuing with our multibillion dollar roading construction plans regardless”.
This large-scale gross wastage of public money will be felt seriously as global production of oil falls below demand causing record elasticity in oil prices and the world is subsequently plunged into recession. The public will come to the realisation later this decade that this money could have been better spent.
An immediate reconsideration of how this money is to be spent giving consideration to the global peak oil issue should commence right now.
Powerless NZ August 2004.