Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

ACT clings desperately to flat-earth policy

ACT clings desperately to flat-earth policy

“…but there are always some men who cling to one or another of the older views, and they are simply read out of the profession” Thomas S. Khun.

ACT politicians ought to heed Khun’s wisdom. The ACT party are decisively on the trajectory of being “read out of the profession” after inferring (The Letter, 17th August 2004) that they had debunked the story that the world is running out of oil.

By way of clarification, the issue isn’t that the world is running out of oil, it will of course, but not for some time. The real issue is that the global production of oil is about to peak, after which we will move into a period of decline, this production decline will be permanent. The most visible issue being supply will not be able to keep pace with global demand.

Khun’s “older views” in this case is the view that the world (and New Zealand) will continue to grow and prosper economically as the finite resource of cheap abundant oil is depleted. This view is wholly naïve, it completely misunderstands the link between oil use and the success of an economy.

The scientific evidence for a peak in oil production occurring circa 2007 is overwhelming.

Dr M. King Hubbert a geophysicist correctly hypothesised in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970 and consequently decline. Although scoffed at by industry and economists at the time his scientific methods were consequently corroborated in 1971 when US oil production did indeed peak.

Since 1971 U.S. oil production has been declining to the tune of 3-4% per annum to the extent that today the U.S. depends on imported oil for over half of it’s petroleum requirements.

Since the 70’s Dr Hubbert’s analyses has been used to predict oil production peaks around the world with staggering success.

Hubbert’s work is hard science, solid testable hypothesis that have resulted in verifiable instrumentally reliable results. The global Hubbert Peak, as it is known, predicts global oil production peak around 2007.

The challenge to New Zealand politicians will be how they prepare for and deal with the economic and social fall-out that will ensue as the world moves past the Hubbert Peak.

Political parties clinging to old world ideologies and pseudo-science will be displaced by the next generation’s practitioners, those that are willing to squarely face up to such hard issues.

The necessary transition from a fossil fuel driven economy to some kind of alternative is beginning now. It will bite with vengeance as global oil production fails to meet demand within the next few years, furthermore energy security will increasingly become an issue as primary production of oil coalesces around the Middle East. This transition is likely to be the single greatest challenge that New Zealand as a society has ever had to confront.

Politicians that laugh in the face of such knowledge will become the proverbial carcasses swinging in the wind as the general populous becomes increasingly aware of this issue.

Powerless NZ 17 August 2004

PowerLess NZ is a growing group of scientists, energy analysts and concerned citizens whose principle objectives are to alert both Government and the general public to New Zealand’s looming energy crisis. Our aim is to support development of renewable energy resources at both a private and public level, as well as encourage a firm move away from dependence upon fossil fuels.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Werewolf: What Does Winston Peters Want His Legacy To Be?

A lot of people in New Zealand seem to resent Winston Peters and the power that he appears to have. “Appears” being the operative word. In reality, Peters will have power only up to the point that he uses it.

By next week, he’ll have become just another junior player in an MMP governing arrangement, battling to hold onto the gains he was promised. More>>

 

Rising Toll: Road Safety Needs To Be A Higher Priority

Official advice released to the Green Party under the Official Information Act shows that the previous National Government dismissed an option to make road safety its most important transport priority after being told the road toll was rising. More>>

ALSO:

Wellington.Scoop: Arrests At Blockade Of "Weapons Expo"

“We encourage people in Wellington to get down to the Westpac Stadium now for a day of awesome peace action. There will be plenty of food, music and activities to keep us sustained through the day.” More>>

ALSO:

Rorschach Restructuring: PSA Taking Inland Revenue To Court Over Psychometrics

The Public Service Association will be seeing Inland Revenue in Employment Court over its intention to psychometrically test employees reapplying for their roles at the department as part of its controversial Business Transformation restructuring plan. More>>

ALSO:

Nuclear Disarmament: Nobel Peace Prize 2017 Awarded To ICAN

Congratulations from iCAN Aotearoa New Zealand to international iCAN, the other iCAN national campaigns and partner organisations, and the countless organisations and individuals who have worked so hard for a nuclear weapons-free world since 1945. More>>

ALSO:

Expenses: Waikato DHB CEO Resigns

An independent inquiry has identified that Dr Murray had spent more than the agreed $25K allocated for relocation costs, and other unauthorized expenses involving potential financial breaches of the chief executive’s obligations. More>>

ALSO:

Wellington.Scoop: Sad About The Trolley Buses?

The Regional Council’s MetLink is today spending money to tell us that it really loves Wellington’s trolley buses, even though they’re all being taken off our roads by the end of this month. More>>

ALSO:

Post-Election: Preliminary Coalition Talks Begin

New Zealand First will hold post-election preliminary discussions in Wellington with the National Party tomorrow morning and the Labour Party tomorrow afternoon. More>>

 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

Featured InfoPages

Opening the Election