Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Generation Jones is driving NZ Voter Volatility

MEDIA RELEASE
11 September 2005

New Analysis Reveals Generation Jones is driving NZ Voter Volatility

A new analysis of recent New Zealand political polling reveals that the current voter vacillation is primarily driven by one demographic-- Generation Jones, the large generation between the Baby Boomers and Generation X. U.S. political analyst and consultant Jonathan Pontell, who conducted the study, said Generation Jones has the highest percentage of floating voters, which when combined with its huge size (29.8% of the electorate) is largely responsible for the volatility in the overall polling numbers. “Based on these new numbers, it seems clear that the winner on September 17 will be the party which is able to swing Jonesers to their side”, said Pontell.

The new analysis shows that Generation Jones is exhibiting strikingly similar voting patterns to those that were so influential in the Nov’04 U.S. and May’05 U.K. elections, where Generation Jones was widely reported by pollsters and media to be the decisive vote in both elections. Throughout those campaigns, Generation Jones had the highest percentage of floating voters among all generations.

Jonesers are likely to have an even bigger impact on the NZ election because Jonesers are a larger percentage of the electorate, and vote at higher rates (86% of all NZ Jonesers voted in the 2002 election, compared with 77% among all eligible NZ voters).

The new analysis was conducted by cross tabulating data from recent polling by TNS, DigiPoll, Colmar-Brunton, UMR, and BCR into the five NZ generations, and by gender within each generation. The five generations are: Generation Y (now 18-25 yr old), Generation X (26-38), Generation Jones (39-50), Baby Boomers (51-62), and Mature Generations (63+). Pontell noted that the standard practice of dividing the electorate into random age categories (e.g. 30-39, 40-49, etc.) obscures important generational differences. “These results provide an excellent example of why generational differences need to be studied more in an electoral context”, Pontell said.

During the NZ campaign, Generation Jones has had the highest percentage of “floating” voters, and has “swung” the most between the parties. Because of this generation’s high rate of vacillation, and with its large size, it has largely driven the volatility in the overall electorate. While Jonesers have repeatedly swung back and forth between the main parties, they typically have been evenly divided between Labour and National. At this point in the campaign, the overall closeness of the race is largely because of Generation Jones. The polling is generally showing the younger two generations leaning Labour, with the two older generations leaning National. Generation Jones is split down the middle, and it is likely that whichever party is able to pull this large, volatile generation to its side will win the election.

Here are a few examples of the data (more is available upon request):

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 44% 47% 39% 36% 37%

National 33% 35% 39% 41% 39%

(source: UMR’s most recent public poll, Aug.)

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 48% 42% 37% 30% 40%

National 27% 21% 36% 35% 29%

(source: TNS’s most recent poll, released Sept. 5)

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 52% 48% 40% 39% 33%

National 24% 34% 41% 45% 44%

(source: DigiPoll’s most recent poll, released Sept. 9)

ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Parliament Today: State Opening Of Parliament

The House sits at 10.30am today before MPs are summoned to hear the Speech from the Throne in the Legislative Council Chamber.

The speech delivered by the Governor-General on the Government’s behalf outlines its priorities for this Parliament.

After this MPs will return to the House for the presentation of petitions and papers and the introduction of any bills.

The Government has five notices of motion on the Order Paper which can be debated. These relate to relating to the appointment of the Deputy Speaker, Assistant Speakers, the reinstatement of business in a carryover motion and one on “Entities to be deemed public organisations”. More>>

 

Tertiary Education: Students Doing It Tough As Fees Rise Again

The Government is making it increasingly difficult for Kiwis to gain tertiary education as fees continue to rise and access to student support becomes even more restricted, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. More>>

ALSO:

Housing, Iraq: PM Press Conference – 20 October 2014

Prime Minister John Key met with press today to discuss:
• Housing prices and redevelopment in Auckland
• Discussions with Tony Abbott on the governmental response to ISIS, and New Zealand’s election to the UN Security Council More>>

ALSO:

Labour: Review Team Named, Leadership Campaign Starts

Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban.

ALSO:


Roy Morgan Poll: National Slips, Labour Hits Lows

The first New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll since the NZ Election shows National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the September 20 Election). This isn’t unusual, National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories... However, support for the main opposition Labour Party has crashed to 22.5% (down 2.63% and the lowest support for Labour since the 1914 NZ Election as United Labour). More>>

ALSO:

In On First Round: New Zealand Wins Security Council Seat

Prime Minister John Key has welcomed New Zealand securing a place on the United Nations Security Council for the 2015-16 term. More>>

ALSO:

TPP Leak: Intellectual Property Text Confirms Risk - Jane Kelsey

The US is continuing its assault on generic medicines through numerous proposed changes to patent laws. ‘These are bound to impact on Pharmac if they are accepted’, according to Professor Kelsey... Copyright is another area of ongoing sensitivity... More>>

ALSO:

RMA: Smith Plans Reform To Ease Urban Development

Newly appointed Environment Minister Nick Smith has announced Resource Management Act reform to foster urban development, where high land prices and expensive resource consents are blocking efforts to provide affordable housing. More>>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On New Zealand getting involved (again) in other people's wars

Apparently, the Key government is still pondering how New Zealand will contribute to the fight against Islamic State. Long may it ponder, given the lack of consensus among our allies as to how to fight IS, where to fight it (Syria, Iraq, or both?) and with whose ground troops, pray tell? More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On child poverty, and David Shearer’s latest outburst

The politicisation of (a) the public service and (b) the operations of the Official Information Act have been highlighted by the policy advice package on child poverty that RNZ’s resolute political editor Brent Edwards has finally prised out of the Ministry of Social Development. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On the government’s review of security laws

So the Key government is about to launch a four week review of the ability of our existing legislation to deal with “suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters, and other violent extremists.”

According to its terms of reference, the review will consider whether the SIS, GCSB and Police are sufficiently able right now to (a) investigate and monitor suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters… More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news