Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Generation Jones is driving NZ Voter Volatility

MEDIA RELEASE
11 September 2005

New Analysis Reveals Generation Jones is driving NZ Voter Volatility

A new analysis of recent New Zealand political polling reveals that the current voter vacillation is primarily driven by one demographic-- Generation Jones, the large generation between the Baby Boomers and Generation X. U.S. political analyst and consultant Jonathan Pontell, who conducted the study, said Generation Jones has the highest percentage of floating voters, which when combined with its huge size (29.8% of the electorate) is largely responsible for the volatility in the overall polling numbers. “Based on these new numbers, it seems clear that the winner on September 17 will be the party which is able to swing Jonesers to their side”, said Pontell.

The new analysis shows that Generation Jones is exhibiting strikingly similar voting patterns to those that were so influential in the Nov’04 U.S. and May’05 U.K. elections, where Generation Jones was widely reported by pollsters and media to be the decisive vote in both elections. Throughout those campaigns, Generation Jones had the highest percentage of floating voters among all generations.

Jonesers are likely to have an even bigger impact on the NZ election because Jonesers are a larger percentage of the electorate, and vote at higher rates (86% of all NZ Jonesers voted in the 2002 election, compared with 77% among all eligible NZ voters).

The new analysis was conducted by cross tabulating data from recent polling by TNS, DigiPoll, Colmar-Brunton, UMR, and BCR into the five NZ generations, and by gender within each generation. The five generations are: Generation Y (now 18-25 yr old), Generation X (26-38), Generation Jones (39-50), Baby Boomers (51-62), and Mature Generations (63+). Pontell noted that the standard practice of dividing the electorate into random age categories (e.g. 30-39, 40-49, etc.) obscures important generational differences. “These results provide an excellent example of why generational differences need to be studied more in an electoral context”, Pontell said.

During the NZ campaign, Generation Jones has had the highest percentage of “floating” voters, and has “swung” the most between the parties. Because of this generation’s high rate of vacillation, and with its large size, it has largely driven the volatility in the overall electorate. While Jonesers have repeatedly swung back and forth between the main parties, they typically have been evenly divided between Labour and National. At this point in the campaign, the overall closeness of the race is largely because of Generation Jones. The polling is generally showing the younger two generations leaning Labour, with the two older generations leaning National. Generation Jones is split down the middle, and it is likely that whichever party is able to pull this large, volatile generation to its side will win the election.

Here are a few examples of the data (more is available upon request):

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 44% 47% 39% 36% 37%

National 33% 35% 39% 41% 39%

(source: UMR’s most recent public poll, Aug.)

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 48% 42% 37% 30% 40%

National 27% 21% 36% 35% 29%

(source: TNS’s most recent poll, released Sept. 5)

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 52% 48% 40% 39% 33%

National 24% 34% 41% 45% 44%

(source: DigiPoll’s most recent poll, released Sept. 9)

ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Greens: Russel Norman To Stand Down As Co-Leader

Green Party Co-leader Dr Russel Norman has announced today that he will stand down as leader at the party’s Annual General Meeting in May. Dr Norman will remain as Co-leader and retain his finance and climate change portfolios until the AGM.

“After nearly a decade as Co-leader, now is a good time to find a new challenge for myself, and to spend more time with my family” said Dr Norman.

“This is my ninth year as Co-leader and I think it’s time for a change. Now is a good time for new leadership for the Party. My replacement will start from a strengthened base and will have a full parliamentary term to establish himself in the role and take the Greens into government in 2017." More>>

 

Gordon Campbell: On The Eleanor Catton Rumpus

If anyone was in doubt about the accuracy of the comments made in India by Eleanor Catton, the reaction from some quarters here at home has gone a long way to proving her point… More>>

ALSO:

More Rent Assistance, Less State-Owned Housing: John Key Speech - Next Steps In Social Housing

"We are going to ensure that more people get into social housing over the next three years, whether that is run by Housing New Zealand or a community provider. The social housing budget provides for around 62,000 income-related rent subsidies a year. We are committed to increasing that to around 65,000 subsidies by 2017/18, which will cost an extra $40 million a year." More>>

ALSO:

The Future Of Work: Andrew Little - State Of The Nation 2015

In 2005 when I led the EPMU we worked together with Air New Zealand to find a way to keep engineering jobs that were heading overseas. A lot of these workers were people I’d known for years and they were facing not just losing their jobs but not being able to find the kind of work they do without going overseas. A lot of people were facing personal and financial upheaval.... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Sabin Case, The Pressures On Greece And (Songs About) Coyotes

Mike Sabin is a National MP, and the current chairman of Parliament’s law and order committee. Yet reportedly, he is being investigated by the Police over an assault complaint... However, the PM will not comment on any aspect of the story. More>>

ALSO:

Houses, ISIS, King (& Catton): PM Post-Cabinet Press Conference

The Prime Minister met with reporters to discuss: • Social housing, the Auckland housing market • The prospect of joining international forces to combat ISIS • David Bain’s compensation • The lowering of the flag for the King of Saudi Arabia's death ... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Tomorrow’s Speeches By John Key And Andrew Little

The Key government has already kicked off the political year on a stridently ideological note, with Environment Minister Nick Smith choosing to lay all manner of sins at the door of the RMA. Tomorrow, the government will wheeling out its best salesman – Prime Minister John Key – to sell its plans for state housing… . More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news