Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Generation Jones is driving NZ Voter Volatility

MEDIA RELEASE
11 September 2005

New Analysis Reveals Generation Jones is driving NZ Voter Volatility

A new analysis of recent New Zealand political polling reveals that the current voter vacillation is primarily driven by one demographic-- Generation Jones, the large generation between the Baby Boomers and Generation X. U.S. political analyst and consultant Jonathan Pontell, who conducted the study, said Generation Jones has the highest percentage of floating voters, which when combined with its huge size (29.8% of the electorate) is largely responsible for the volatility in the overall polling numbers. “Based on these new numbers, it seems clear that the winner on September 17 will be the party which is able to swing Jonesers to their side”, said Pontell.

The new analysis shows that Generation Jones is exhibiting strikingly similar voting patterns to those that were so influential in the Nov’04 U.S. and May’05 U.K. elections, where Generation Jones was widely reported by pollsters and media to be the decisive vote in both elections. Throughout those campaigns, Generation Jones had the highest percentage of floating voters among all generations.

Jonesers are likely to have an even bigger impact on the NZ election because Jonesers are a larger percentage of the electorate, and vote at higher rates (86% of all NZ Jonesers voted in the 2002 election, compared with 77% among all eligible NZ voters).

The new analysis was conducted by cross tabulating data from recent polling by TNS, DigiPoll, Colmar-Brunton, UMR, and BCR into the five NZ generations, and by gender within each generation. The five generations are: Generation Y (now 18-25 yr old), Generation X (26-38), Generation Jones (39-50), Baby Boomers (51-62), and Mature Generations (63+). Pontell noted that the standard practice of dividing the electorate into random age categories (e.g. 30-39, 40-49, etc.) obscures important generational differences. “These results provide an excellent example of why generational differences need to be studied more in an electoral context”, Pontell said.

During the NZ campaign, Generation Jones has had the highest percentage of “floating” voters, and has “swung” the most between the parties. Because of this generation’s high rate of vacillation, and with its large size, it has largely driven the volatility in the overall electorate. While Jonesers have repeatedly swung back and forth between the main parties, they typically have been evenly divided between Labour and National. At this point in the campaign, the overall closeness of the race is largely because of Generation Jones. The polling is generally showing the younger two generations leaning Labour, with the two older generations leaning National. Generation Jones is split down the middle, and it is likely that whichever party is able to pull this large, volatile generation to its side will win the election.

Here are a few examples of the data (more is available upon request):

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 44% 47% 39% 36% 37%

National 33% 35% 39% 41% 39%

(source: UMR’s most recent public poll, Aug.)

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 48% 42% 37% 30% 40%

National 27% 21% 36% 35% 29%

(source: TNS’s most recent poll, released Sept. 5)

GEN Y GEN X GEN JONES BOOMERS MATURE GENS

Labour 52% 48% 40% 39% 33%

National 24% 34% 41% 45% 44%

(source: DigiPoll’s most recent poll, released Sept. 9)

ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

PARLIAMENT TODAY:

Education: Schools Funded To Trial Innovative Approaches

Education Minister Hekia Parata has announced the successful applicants for a new $10 million fund to encourage innovative teaching practices. “I’m delighted with the quality of the 39 projects that have won funding in the first round of the Teacher-led Innovation Fund worth a total of about $2.6 million,” says Ms Parata. More>>

ALSO:

Generation Zero: Skypath Granted Resource Consent

Generation Zero is delighted and relieved that the ‘Skypath’ walking and cycling addition to the Harbour Bridge has been granted resource consent. More>>

ALSO:

Housing: Two New Auckland Special Housing Areas

Two new greenfield Special Housing Areas (SHAs) that will provide up to 1800 new homes in Auckland have been announced today by Building and Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith and Mayor Len Brown. More>>

ALSO:

Royals: The Prince Of Wales And Duchess Of Cornwall To Visit

Prime Minister John Key welcomes today’s announcement that the Prince of Wales and The Duchess of Cornwall will visit New Zealand in November. This will be the second joint visit for Their Royal Highnesses to New Zealand. More>>

ALSO:

Tracey Martin Replaced: Ron Mark Is New New Zealand First Deputy Leader

Clayton Mitchell was the successful candidate for the Associate Whip position. Winston Peters was re-elected as Leader by the Caucus. Ron Mark was elected as the Deputy Leader with effect from 10am, Friday, 3rd July. More>>

ALSO:

Rebuild Rebrand: "Regenerate Christchurch" To Replace CERA

The regeneration of Christchurch will be the city’s focus for the next five years as local leadership progressively takes control of the rebuild, Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee says. More>>

ALSO:

Nauru: Scholars Urge Minister To Act On Deteriorating Democracy

“Since the 2013 election in Nauru, there has been a series of disturbing developments on the islands that indicate a severe deterioration in the state of its parliamentary democracy and in the rule of law,” say the scholars. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news