Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Keepleftnz.org wins victory in polling battle

Media Release

19 September, 2005

Keepleftnz.org wins comprehensive victory in polling battle

Keepleftnz.org’s sophisticated poll of polls and its industry-leading poll of poll of polls predicted the on-the-night election result better than all the major polling organisations.

“On average, we only got parties vote shares wrong by half of one percent. And we were never wrong by more that 1.1%. And in our poll of poll of polls, we got within 0.2% for both Labour and National. We rule!” sang John, Paul, and George, more or less in unison.

“Our methods for aggregating polls, and even for aggregating rolling polls, cut through the volatility and vacillation from one poll to the next. We produced an accurate picture of New Zealand’s underlying political attitudes” said a triumphant Ringo.

Keepleftnz’s poll of polls used data from all polls over the previous four-week period, weighted to give recent polls and larger polls more influence over the final predictions.

Yoko beamed: “This is a huge victory for the little guys and gals. Why pay many thousands for a market research company to do political research when you can see ours for free?”

In other news, the price of accessing keepleftnz’s poll of polls is rumoured to increase shortly from zero to “many thousands”.

Table: Poll results released in the last week of the campaign

Polling Organisation Average Error Average Major Party Error Largest Error
Fairfax (Wed) 1.56% 3.56% 3.74%
Morgan (Thu) 1.45% 2.44% 2.63%
NZ Herald (Fri) 1.22% 3.05% 3.86%
TV1 (Thu) 1.19% 3.56% 4.37%
TV3 (Thu) 0.78% 0.58% 1.83%

keepleftnz.org
Poll of Polls (as published) 0.63% 0.76% 1.13%
Poll of Polls (updated) 0.46% 0.40% 0.99%
Poll of Poll of Polls 0.50% 0.11% 1.10%

Notes:

1. The “errors” are calculated using the absolute differences between the predicted and actual (on the night) party vote percentages for Labour, National, New Zealand First, Green, United Future, ACT, and the Maori Party. Major party errors refer to Labour and National.

2. The keepleftnz poll of polls as published on 16/9 did not include the results of the Herald’s poll in its calculations. The updated poll of polls simply adds the Herald’s results into the mix using the usual method.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

Wellington: Predator Free Capital Plan

Wellington City Council (WCC), the Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) and NEXT Foundation, today announced a joint collaboration to make Wellington the first Predator Free capital city in the world. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Judith Collins’ Efforts At Self Correction

Thousands of prisoners currently in prison may be entitled to an earlier release than expected – and compensation – because Corrections has incorrectly calculated their term of imprisonment. Unless of course, the government buries its mistakes by changing the law and retro-actively getting itself off the hook… More>>

ALSO:

More Justice & Corrections

Sector Opposes Bill: Local Government Bill Timeframe Extended

The Minister of Local Government Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga has asked the Select Committee to extend the report back date for the Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2). More>>

ALSO:

Breed Laws Don’t Work: Vets On New National Dog Control Plan

It is pleasing therefore to see Louise Upston Associate Minister for Local Government calling for a comprehensive solution... However, relying on breed specific laws to manage dog aggression will not work. More>>

ALSO:

Not Waiting On Select Committee: Green Party Releases Medically-Assisted Dying Policy

“Adults with a terminal illness should have the right to choose a medically assisted death,” Green Party health spokesperson Kevin Hague said. “The Green Party does not support extending assisted dying to people who aren't terminally ill because we can’t be confident that this won't further marginalise the lives of people with disabilities." More>>

ALSO:

General Election Review: Changes To Electoral Act Introduced

More effective systems in polling places and earlier counting of advanced votes are on their way through proposed changes to our electoral laws, Justice Minister Amy Adams says. More>>

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news