Duckworth-Lewis type equations for referendum?
Duckworth-Lewis type mathematical equations may determine referendum outcome at this stage. The Kiwi Party
April 24, 2008
Kiwi Party Leader and anti-smacking petition organiser Larry Baldock confirmed today that the preliminary results from Sheryl Savill’s petition to force a referendum on the question, ‘should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in NZ?’ was going to be very close to being just under or over the required threshold.
A total of 324,316 signatures were handed in on Feb 29th. To succeed in forcing a referendum it is required to have the certified signatures of 10% of those enrolled on the electoral role which on that day was 285,027. That would therefore require a success rate of 87.88% from the audit process undertaken by the Chief Registrar of Electors. A random sample of 29,501 signatures was taken and checked individually against the electoral role with 25,754 qualifying as certified correct.
Mr Baldock said “If I did my own simple maths on those figures we would then estimate that we had a success rate of 87.29%
“However I am informed by the Clerk that the Government Statistician needs 90 hours to complete a very complicated mathematical formula to officially ascertain the number of correct signatures. I have no idea why this must take so long and whether there will be any great variation from my simple maths. It begins to look like the Duckworth-Lewis system of determining the results in rain shortened One Day Cricket matches, and we all know how they turn out, usually in the other teams favour! said Mr Baldock.
The final result must be given to the Speaker of the House of Representatives no later than next Tuesday April 29th by the Clerk of the House.